Spread: Indiana (-20.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Indiana (29%) · Indiana at 53¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 31

Indiana53¢Minnesota47¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Indiana

Consensus Traders

Indiana 29%

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

$142.15

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralIndiana at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Indiana

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Indiana53%

Minnesota48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Indiana2 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares9,767

Combined PnL+$47.66

Minnesota5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares9,583

Combined PnL+$94.48

Indiana — 29%Minnesota — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961	Indianaavg 52¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$48.45	48% 225-243 (468)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Minnesotaavg 48¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$73.48	54% 17124-14337 (31461)
38 38791873984189CTR	Minnesotaavg 48¢	$549.76	$561.21	+$11.45	46% 8071-9516 (17587)
VeryLucky888CTR	Minnesotaavg 48¢	$480	$490	+$10	58% 41580-30193 (71773)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Indianaavg 52¢	$40.63	$39.84	-$0.78	50% 33227-32776 (66003)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Minnesotaavg 48¢	$29.76	$29.45	-$0.31	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Minnesotaavg 48¢	$13.54	$13.4	-$0.14	57% 13663-10453 (24116)

0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961

Indiana

Invested

$5,038.36

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$48.45

Record

48%

225-243 (468)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Minnesota

Invested

$3,527

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$73.48

Record

54%

17124-14337 (31461)

38791873984189CTR

Minnesota

Invested

$549.76

Value

$561.21

PnL

+$11.45

Record

46%

8071-9516 (17587)

VeryLucky888CTR

Minnesota

Invested

$480

Value

$490

PnL

+$10

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

SnakeBall<$100

Indiana

Invested

$40.63

Value

$39.84

PnL

-$0.78

Record

50%

33227-32776 (66003)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Minnesota

Invested

$29.76

Value

$29.45

PnL

-$0.31

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Minnesota

Invested

$13.54

Value

$13.4

PnL

-$0.14

Record

57%

13663-10453 (24116)

Research grade

NeutralIndiana at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Indiana

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Indiana wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.