Spread: Indiana (-17.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Minnesota (50%) · Minnesota at 88¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Indiana12¢Minnesota88¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Minnesota

Consensus Traders

Minnesota 50%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$40.56

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 88¢

+77% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralMinnesota at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Minnesota

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Indiana12%

Minnesota88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Indiana3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,067

Combined PnL+$174.27

Minnesota3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,438

Combined PnL-$133.72

Indiana — 50%Minnesota — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Indianaavg 49¢	$1,000	$1.2K	+$173.47	47% 331-377 (708)
PR primm	Minnesotaavg 51¢	$1.0K	$908.16	-$132.65	46% 1072-1263 (2335)
FO Forecastication2	Minnesotaavg 43¢	$152.65	$150.88	-$1.78	50% 7034-7032 (14066)
GH ghorrock<$100	Minnesotaavg 41¢	$26.31	$27.02	+$0.71	57% 13827-10598 (24425)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Indianaavg 47¢	$3.29	$4.48	+$1.19	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Indianaavg 47¢	$1.93	$1.54	-$0.39	49% 8081-8480 (16561)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Indiana

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$173.47

Record

47%

331-377 (708)

primm

Minnesota

Invested

$1,040.81

Value

$908.16

PnL

-$132.65

Record

46%

1072-1263 (2335)

Forecastication2

Minnesota

Invested

$152.65

Value

$150.88

PnL

-$1.78

Record

50%

7034-7032 (14066)

ghorrock<$100

Minnesota

Invested

$26.31

Value

$27.02

PnL

+$0.71

Record

57%

13827-10598 (24425)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Indiana

Invested

$3.29

Value

$4.48

PnL

+$1.19

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Indiana

Invested

$1.93

Value

$1.54

PnL

-$0.39

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Research grade

NeutralMinnesota at 88%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Minnesota

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Minnesota wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.