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IndianaIndiana
RN1CTR<$100IndianaIndianaMinnesota
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Indiana — but Minnesota won instead.
Spread: Indiana (-13.5)
Resolved Minnesota. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Indiana. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Indiana 100%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$96.01
Combined PnL
-$66.43
Smart Money Signal
Indiana
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Indiana0%
Minnesota100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Indiana3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares59
Combined PnL-$66.43
Minnesota1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Indiana — 75%Minnesota — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Indianaavg 59.8¢ | $103.74 | $96.01 | -$19.28 | 48% 8249-8767 (17016) |
| └ Minnesota leg | Minnesotaavg 39.5¢ | $37.94 | $96.01 | +$58.07 | |
| └ Indiana leg | Indianaavg 59.8¢ | $65.8 | — | -$77.35 | |
SH shoemanhereCTR<$100 | Indianaavg 54.9¢ | $32.45 | — | -$66.43 | 56% 7104-5487 (12591) |
RN1CTR<$100 | Indianaavg 60¢ | — | — | +$0 | 54% 56824-49050 (105874) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Indianaavg 63¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 10816-9436 (20252) |
PR primm<$100 | Minnesotaavg 40¢ | — | — | +$0 | 46% 1085-1274 (2359) |
TO
topdogbigboiARB<$100Invested
$103.74
Value
$96.01
PnL
-$19.28
Record
48%
8249-8767 (17016)
Both legs:
Minnesota$37.9439.5¢+$58.07
Indiana$65.859.8¢-$77.35
SH
shoemanhereCTR<$100Invested
$32.45
Value
—
PnL
-$66.43
Record
56%
7104-5487 (12591)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
56824-49050 (105874)
JU
justaluckydudeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
10816-9436 (20252)
PR
primm<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
1085-1274 (2359)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xf3a87705...807428
Slug
cfb-minnst-ind-2026-10-31-spread-home-13pt5