Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Michigan vs. Rutgers: O/U 47.5

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (90%) · Under at 49¢ · $17K held · ended Oct 31

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 90%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.8K

Combined PnL

-$57.19

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 49¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares20,085

Combined PnL-$56.72

Over1 trader

Total Value$103.84

Total Shares228

Combined PnL-$0.47

Under — 90%Over — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 50.6¢	$6.8K	$6.6K	-$180.41	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.6¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$63.37
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.7¢	$3.1K	$2.8K	-$243.78
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 50.2¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$44.94	55% 7125-5714 (12839)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Underavg 50¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$26.46	54% 4886-4115 (9001)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Underavg 48.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$11.85	54% 2305-1991 (4296)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Underavg 49¢	$979.49	$989.48	+$9.99	59% 4052-2864 (6916)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 49¢	$980	$930	-$50	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Underavg 49¢	$877.25	$886.2	+$8.95	46% 437-514 (951)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksARB<$100	Overavg 51.7¢	$179.37	$172.09	-$7.28	54% 2988-2575 (5563)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.7¢	$98.82	$98.37	-$0.45
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$80.55	$73.72	-$6.83
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 45.7¢	$104.32	$103.84	-$0.47	50% 7031-7023 (14054)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 47.3¢	$84.79	$92.27	+$7.48	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$41	$38.54	-$2.87	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$4.9	$4.95	+$0.05	51% 1450-1393 (2843)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,785.71

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$180.41

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

Both legs:

Over$3,706.1450.6¢+$63.37

Under$3,079.5752.7¢-$243.78

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$3,014.94

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$44.94

Record

55%

7125-5714 (12839)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Under

Invested

$2,646.5

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$26.46

Record

54%

4886-4115 (9001)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Under

Invested

$1,336.87

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$11.85

Record

54%

2305-1991 (4296)

Bagwell306CTR

Under

Invested

$979.49

Value

$989.48

PnL

+$9.99

Record

59%

4052-2864 (6916)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$980

Value

$930

PnL

-$50

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Under

Invested

$877.25

Value

$886.2

PnL

+$8.95

Record

46%

437-514 (951)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksARB<$100

Over

Invested

$179.37

Value

$172.09

PnL

-$7.28

Record

54%

2988-2575 (5563)

Both legs:

Over$98.8251.7¢-$0.45

Under$80.5553¢-$6.83

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$104.32

Value

$103.84

PnL

-$0.47

Record

50%

7031-7023 (14054)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$84.79

Value

$92.27

PnL

+$7.48

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41

Value

$38.54

PnL

-$2.87

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

1450-1393 (2843)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.