Spread: Michigan (-16.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Michigan (29%) · Michigan at 52¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Michigan
7
Michigan 29%
$1.2K
-$11.79
50.5¢ → 51.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralMichigan at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761dCTR | Rutgersavg 50¢ | $490.2 | $475.49 | -$14.71 | 51% 136-130 (266) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Michiganavg 51¢ | $295.85 | $298.75 | +$2.9 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
FO Forecastication2 | Michiganavg 50¢ | $256 | $256 | +$0 | 50% 7031-7023 (14054) |
 NooseracCTR<$100 | Rutgersavg 48¢ | $72 | $72.75 | +$0.75 | 52% 5777-5366 (11143) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Rutgersavg 49.5¢ | $41.07 | $40.25 | -$0.82 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Rutgersavg 48¢ | $5.54 | $5.6 | +$0.06 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100 | Rutgersavg 48¢ | $2.42 | $2.44 | +$0.03 | 54% 4886-4115 (9001) |
Invested
$490.2
Value
$475.49
PnL
-$14.71
Record
51%
136-130 (266)
Invested
$295.85
Value
$298.75
PnL
+$2.9
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$256
Value
$256
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7031-7023 (14054)
NooseracCTR<$100Invested
$72
Value
$72.75
PnL
+$0.75
Record
52%
5777-5366 (11143)
Invested
$41.07
Value
$40.25
PnL
-$0.82
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$5.54
Value
$5.6
PnL
+$0.06
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
Invested
$2.42
Value
$2.44
PnL
+$0.03
Record
54%
4886-4115 (9001)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.