Michigan vs. Rutgers

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Michigan (50%) · Michigan at 84¢ · $225K held · ended Oct 31

Michigan84¢Rutgers16¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Michigan

Consensus Traders

Michigan 50%

Total Value

$224.9K

Combined PnL

$-15.1K

Smart Money Entry

95.9¢ → 84¢

-12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMichigan at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Michigan

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Michigan84%

Rutgers16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michigan5 traders

Total Value$203.5K

Total Shares244,971

Combined PnL$-31.5K

Rutgers5 traders

Total Value$21.4K

Total Shares125,278

Combined PnL+$16.3K

Michigan — 50%Rutgers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
99 999585	Michiganavg 96¢	$230.4K	$199.1K	$-31.3K	96% 27-1 (28)
NooseracCTR	Rutgersavg 4¢	$5.0K	$21.3K	+$16.3K	52% 5777-5366 (11143)
OM omoi0i0	Michiganavg 89¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$180.07	65% 1505-813 (2318)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Michiganavg 92.2¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$45.11	52% 13799-12598 (26397)
BI BillBenter2026	Michiganavg 85.4¢	$298.15	$293.51	-$4.64	58% 18669-13724 (32393)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Michiganavg 85¢	$43.04	$43.3	+$0.25	74% 6686-2399 (9085)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Rutgersavg 17.6¢	$24.57	$23.76	-$0.81	53% 10787-9397 (20184)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Rutgersavg 7.9¢	$4.74	$10.23	+$5.49	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Rutgersavg 6.7¢	$2.96	$7.57	+$4.61	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Rutgersavg 15¢	$2.59	$2.41	-$0.17	39% 424-670 (1094)

999585

Michigan

Invested

$230,400

Value

$199.1K

PnL

$-31.3K

Record

96%

27-1 (28)

NooseracCTR

Rutgers

Invested

$5,000

Value

$21.3K

PnL

+$16.3K

Record

52%

5777-5366 (11143)

omoi0i0

Michigan

Invested

$2,651.98

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$180.07

Record

65%

1505-813 (2318)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Michigan

Invested

$1,584.68

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$45.11

Record

52%

13799-12598 (26397)

BillBenter2026

Michigan

Invested

$298.15

Value

$293.51

PnL

-$4.64

Record

58%

18669-13724 (32393)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Michigan

Invested

$43.04

Value

$43.3

PnL

+$0.25

Record

74%

6686-2399 (9085)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$24.57

Value

$23.76

PnL

-$0.81

Record

53%

10787-9397 (20184)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$4.74

Value

$10.23

PnL

+$5.49

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$2.96

Value

$7.57

PnL

+$4.61

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

OddstormCTR<$100

Rutgers

Invested

$2.59

Value

$2.41

PnL

-$0.17

Record

39%

424-670 (1094)

Research grade

NeutralMichigan at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Michigan

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Michigan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.