Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Michigan vs. Oregon: O/U 39.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 50¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 14

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

$92.87

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 49.5¢

-6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares8,640

Combined PnL+$42.76

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,537

Combined PnL+$50.11

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 53¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$31.5	50% 2513-2472 (4985)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 51.7¢	$3.4K	$2.6K	-$60.52	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.7¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$88.41
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.9¢	$843.74	$871.63	+$27.89
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	+$32.21	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$775.22	$783.08	+$6.6
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$318.1	$328.22	+$25.61
PL pltrkr111CTR	Underavg 52¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$9.62	4% 23-537 (560)
HI hi774c	Overavg 47¢	$825.19	$833.97	+$8.78	22% 179-618 (797)
MA MadridTime	Overavg 47¢	$257.61	$276.79	+$19.18	37% 966-1631 (2597)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 47¢	$250.46	$269.11	+$18.65	37% 957-1658 (2615)
NM NM-P	Overavg 47¢	$164.5	$166.25	+$1.75	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
GC GC-P	Overavg 47¢	$164.5	$166.25	+$1.75	37% 353-603 (956)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 50¢	$107.35	$112.72	+$5.37	46% 487-575 (1062)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$77.48	$73.76	-$3.73	54% 286-244 (530)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 53¢	$28.09	$28.09	-$0	48% 286-304 (590)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$3,339.38

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$31.5

Record

50%

2513-2472 (4985)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,420.07

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$60.52

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Both legs:

Under$1,800.4251.7¢-$88.41

Over$843.7448.9¢+$27.89

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,604.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$32.21

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$9.62

Record

23-537 (560)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$825.19

Value

$833.97

PnL

+$8.78

Record

22%

179-618 (797)

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$257.61

Value

$276.79

PnL

+$19.18

Record

37%

966-1631 (2597)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$250.46

Value

$269.11

PnL

+$18.65

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$164.5

Value

$166.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$164.5

Value

$166.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$107.35

Value

$112.72

PnL

+$5.37

Record

46%

487-575 (1062)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$77.48

Value

$73.76

PnL

-$3.73

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.09

Value

$28.09

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.