Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Oregon, while the market favors Michigan (75%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Oregon (-20.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Oregon (75%) · Oregon at 25¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Oregon25¢Michigan75¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Oregon

Consensus Traders

Oregon 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$709.91

Smart Money Entry

35.2¢ → 25¢

-29% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOregon at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oregon

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Michigan 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oregon25%

Michigan75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michigan2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,022

Combined PnL+$563.56

Oregon6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,246

Combined PnL+$146.35

Michigan — 25%Oregon — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Michiganavg 47¢	$945.64	$1.5K	+$563.36	59% 932-653 (1585)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Michiganavg 73.5¢	$1.7K	$1.2K	-$523	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
└ Michigan leg	Michiganavg 73.5¢	$1.4K	$904.13	-$525.44
└ Oregon leg	Oregonavg 53¢	$258.11	$260.55	+$2.44
MA MadridTimeCTR	Oregonavg 26.2¢	$434.4	$613.94	+$179.54	38% 1060-1756 (2816)
RN1CTR	Oregonavg 53¢	$437.78	$437.78	+$0	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
VE VenusianCTR	Oregonavg 27¢	$138.18	$127.94	-$10.24	37% 1035-1784 (2819)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Oregonavg 53¢	$106	$107	+$1	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Oregonavg 52¢	$15.62	$15.92	+$0.3	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Oregonavg 53¢	$76.67	$14.82	-$24.25	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
GH ghorrock<$100	Michiganavg 73¢	$7.36	$7.56	+$0.2	53% 1854-1648 (3502)

primm

Michigan

Invested

$945.64

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$563.36

Record

59%

932-653 (1585)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Michigan

Invested

$1,687.68

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$523

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

Both legs:

Michigan$1,429.5773.5¢-$525.44

Oregon$258.1153¢+$2.44

MadridTimeCTR

Oregon

Invested

$434.4

Value

$613.94

PnL

+$179.54

Record

38%

1060-1756 (2816)

RN1CTR

Oregon

Invested

$437.78

Value

$437.78

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

VenusianCTR

Oregon

Invested

$138.18

Value

$127.94

PnL

-$10.24

Record

37%

1035-1784 (2819)

6512395314597884CTR

Oregon

Invested

$106

Value

$107

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Oregon

Invested

$15.62

Value

$15.92

PnL

+$0.3

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Oregon

Invested

$76.67

Value

$14.82

PnL

-$24.25

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

ghorrock<$100

Michigan

Invested

$7.36

Value

$7.56

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

Research grade

AvoidOregon at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Oregon

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Michigan 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oregon wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.0%

25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$270.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

370.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.