Spread: Oregon (-10.5)

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Michigan (18%) · Michigan at 54¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14

Oregon47¢Michigan53¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Michigan

Consensus Traders

Michigan 18%

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$124.47

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 53.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralMichigan at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Michigan

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Oregon47%

Michigan54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michigan2 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares9,444

Combined PnL+$38.89

Oregon9 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares9,305

Combined PnL+$85.58

Michigan — 18%Oregon — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOregon 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Oregon 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Michiganavg 53¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$38.89	59% 1135-781 (1916)
BO BoggsFromShawshankCTR	Oregonavg 47¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$71.52	3% 12-393 (405)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Michiganavg 52¢	$866.65	$866.65	+$0	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
38 38791873984189CTR	Oregonavg 48¢	$1.1K	$534.16	+$12.12	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
NM NM-PCTR	Oregonavg 47¢	$164.5	$168	+$3.5	59% 3775-2600 (6375)
GC GC-PCTR	Oregonavg 47¢	$164.5	$168	+$3.5	37% 367-618 (985)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Oregonavg 49¢	$75.95	$72.85	-$3.1	48% 301-330 (631)
QW qWOprt7CTR<$100	Oregonavg 48¢	$50	$48.44	-$1.56	0% 0-81 (81)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Oregonavg 47.9¢	$15.6	$15.96	+$0.36	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Oregonavg 48¢	$12.83	$12.57	-$0.27	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Oregonavg 51¢	$6.12	$5.64	-$0.48	47% 936-1036 (1972)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Michigan

Invested

$4,121.81

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$38.89

Record

59%

1135-781 (1916)

BoggsFromShawshankCTR

Oregon

Invested

$3,361.35

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$71.52

Record

12-393 (405)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Michigan

Invested

$866.65

Value

$866.65

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

38791873984189CTR

Oregon

Invested

$1,132.12

Value

$534.16

PnL

+$12.12

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

NM-PCTR

Oregon

Invested

$164.5

Value

$168

PnL

+$3.5

Record

59%

3775-2600 (6375)

GC-PCTR

Oregon

Invested

$164.5

Value

$168

PnL

+$3.5

Record

37%

367-618 (985)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Oregon

Invested

$75.95

Value

$72.85

PnL

-$3.1

Record

48%

301-330 (631)

qWOprt7CTR<$100

Oregon

Invested

$50

Value

$48.44

PnL

-$1.56

Record

0-81 (81)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Oregon

Invested

$15.6

Value

$15.96

PnL

+$0.36

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Oregon

Invested

$12.83

Value

$12.57

PnL

-$0.27

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Oregon

Invested

$6.12

Value

$5.64

PnL

-$0.48

Record

47%

936-1036 (1972)

Research grade

NeutralMichigan at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Michigan

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOregon 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Oregon 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Michigan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.