Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Notre Dame, while the market favors Miami (FL) (53%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Notre Dame (-7.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Notre Dame (75%) · Notre Dame at 48¢ · $36K held · ends Nov 8

Notre Dame48¢Miami (FL)52¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Notre Dame

Consensus Traders

Notre Dame 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$36.2K

Combined PnL

-$724.87

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 47.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNotre Dame at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Notre Dame

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Miami (FL) 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Notre Dame48%

Miami (FL)53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Notre Dame6 traders

Total Value$29.0K

Total Shares61,773

Combined PnL-$694.54

Miami (FL)2 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares12,710

Combined PnL-$30.33

Notre Dame — 75%Miami (FL) — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Notre Dame. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMiami (FL) 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrMiami (FL) 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Miami (FL) 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Notre Dameavg 48.1¢	$28.9K	$28.2K	-$690.32	51% 994-944 (1938)
HO HomeRunHazard	Miami (FL)avg 52¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	+$15.66	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
nigiri99	Miami (FL)avg 52.7¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$45.99	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
WA WarriorHCTR	Notre Dameavg 48¢	$697.44	$658.82	-$6.94	17% 1381-6733 (8114)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Notre Dameavg 47¢	$887.31	$356.7	+$12.86	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
└ Notre Dame leg	Notre Dameavg 47¢	$233.59	$236.07	+$11.18
└ Miami (FL) leg	Miami (FL)avg 51.8¢	$119.13	$120.63	+$1.68
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Notre Dameavg 47¢	$81.6	$82.47	+$0.87	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Notre Dameavg 47¢	$57.34	$57.34	+$1.83	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Notre Dameavg 47¢	$11.69	$11.81	+$0.12	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Notre Dameavg 48¢	$10.25	$10.14	-$0.11	77% 12764-3905 (16669)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Notre Dame

Invested

$28,910.93

Value

$28.2K

PnL

-$690.32

Record

51%

994-944 (1938)

HomeRunHazard

Miami (FL)

Invested

$5,522.41

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$15.66

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

nigiri99

Miami (FL)

Invested

$1,387.29

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$45.99

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

WarriorHCTR

Notre Dame

Invested

$697.44

Value

$658.82

PnL

-$6.94

Record

17%

1381-6733 (8114)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Notre Dame

Invested

$887.31

Value

$356.7

PnL

+$12.86

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

Both legs:

Notre Dame$233.5947¢+$11.18

Miami (FL)$119.1351.8¢+$1.68

GC-PCTR<$100

Notre Dame

Invested

$81.6

Value

$82.47

PnL

+$0.87

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Notre Dame

Invested

$57.34

Value

$57.34

PnL

+$1.83

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

NM-PCTR<$100

Notre Dame

Invested

$11.69

Value

$11.81

PnL

+$0.12

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Notre Dame

Invested

$10.25

Value

$10.14

PnL

-$0.11

Record

77%

12764-3905 (16669)

Research grade

NeutralNotre Dame at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Notre Dame

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Miami (FL) 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Notre Dame. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMiami (FL) 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrMiami (FL) 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Miami (FL) 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Notre Dame wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.