Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Miami (FL), while the market favors Notre Dame (59%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Notre Dame (-5.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Miami (FL) (100%) · Miami (FL) at 42¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Miami (FL)
5
Miami (FL) 100%
1 arb excluded
$5.0K
-$247.8
48¢ → 41.5¢
-14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralMiami (FL) at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Notre Dame 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
63h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on Miami (FL). Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Miami (FL)avg 48¢ | $3.5K | $3.3K | -$152.02 | 54% 18193-15301 (33494) |
| └ Miami (FL) leg | Miami (FL)avg 48¢ | $2.3K | $1.9K | -$305.36 | |
| └ Notre Dame leg | Notre Dameavg 52¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$153.34 | |
PL pltrkr111CTR | Miami (FL)avg 48¢ | $1,000 | $864.58 | -$135.42 | 54% 771-644 (1415) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Miami (FL)avg 48¢ | $643.8 | $556.62 | -$87.18 | 51% 37415-36655 (74070) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Miami (FL)avg 47.9¢ | $527.34 | $156.18 | -$24.17 | 48% 60745-65398 (126143) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Miami (FL)avg 48¢ | $64.59 | $67.01 | +$2.42 | 48% 7296-8001 (15297) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Miami (FL)avg 47.6¢ | $87.96 | $43.91 | -$3.46 | 58% 20277-14893 (35170) |
Invested
$3,484.21
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$152.02
Record
54%
18193-15301 (33494)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,000
Value
$864.58
PnL
-$135.42
Record
54%
771-644 (1415)
Invested
$643.8
Value
$556.62
PnL
-$87.18
Record
51%
37415-36655 (74070)
Invested
$527.34
Value
$156.18
PnL
-$24.17
Record
48%
60745-65398 (126143)
Invested
$64.59
Value
$67.01
PnL
+$2.42
Record
48%
7296-8001 (15297)
Invested
$87.96
Value
$43.91
PnL
-$3.46
Record
58%
20277-14893 (35170)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.