Miami (FL) vs. North Carolina: O/U 51.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 55¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 75%
$1.1K
$37.57
53.1¢ → 55¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 53¢ | $756.54 | $772.06 | +$35.09 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 45¢ | $202.5 | $202.5 | +$0 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Overavg 53.3¢ | $76.17 | $78.65 | +$2.48 | 54% 2988-2575 (5563) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $24.2 | $24.2 | +$0 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$756.54
Value
$772.06
PnL
+$35.09
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
Invested
$202.5
Value
$202.5
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
Invested
$76.17
Value
$78.65
PnL
+$2.48
Record
54%
2988-2575 (5563)
Invested
$24.2
Value
$24.2
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.