Spread: Miami (FL) (-13.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold North Carolina (73%) · North Carolina at 64¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 31

Miami (FL)37¢North Carolina63¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

North Carolina

Consensus Traders

North Carolina 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

-$22.58

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 63.5¢

+27% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNorth Carolina at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

North Carolina

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Miami (FL)37%

North Carolina64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miami (FL)3 traders

Total Value$965.38

Total Shares1,933

Combined PnL+$6.37

North Carolina8 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,079

Combined PnL-$28.95

Miami (FL) — 27%North Carolina — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186ARB<$100	North Carolinaavg 51¢	$6.3K	$6.2K	-$104.11	46% 445-519 (964)
└ North Carolina leg	North Carolinaavg 51¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$73.46
└ Miami (FL) leg	Miami (FL)avg 50.6¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$30.64
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Miami (FL)avg 49¢	$856.58	$865.32	+$8.74	54% 17200-14430 (31630)
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360	North Carolinaavg 51¢	$750	$742.65	-$7.35	46% 136-159 (295)
0X 0xc33a100b8362bc732e78cce28c99739f173b3da3	North Carolinaavg 49¢	$490	$480	-$10	42% 194-273 (467)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be	North Carolinaavg 50.4¢	$115.97	$123.11	+$7.14	48% 342-364 (706)
PU purplegatto<$100	North Carolinaavg 50¢	$92	$71.76	-$20.24	50% 5891-5982 (11873)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	North Carolinaavg 48¢	$56.16	$57.33	+$1.17	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Miami (FL)avg 52¢	$52	$52	+$0	42% 1968-2772 (4740)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Miami (FL)avg 59.3¢	$50.43	$48.06	-$2.37	48% 8249-8767 (17016)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	North Carolinaavg 49¢	$27.93	$27.93	+$0	50% 3891-3854 (7745)
GG GGLPL<$100	North Carolinaavg 51¢	$5.32	$5.27	-$0.05	50% 685-679 (1364)
PR primm<$100	North Carolinaavg 48¢	$4.62	$5	+$0.38	46% 1085-1274 (2359)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186ARB<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$6,323.65

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$104.11

Record

46%

445-519 (964)

Both legs:

North Carolina$3,749.0751¢-$73.46

Miami (FL)$2,574.5850.6¢-$30.64

HomeRunHazardCTR

Miami (FL)

Invested

$856.58

Value

$865.32

PnL

+$8.74

Record

54%

17200-14430 (31630)

0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360

North Carolina

Invested

$750

Value

$742.65

PnL

-$7.35

Record

46%

136-159 (295)

0xc33a100b8362bc732e78cce28c99739f173b3da3

North Carolina

Invested

$490

Value

$480

PnL

-$10

Record

42%

194-273 (467)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be

North Carolina

Invested

$115.97

Value

$123.11

PnL

+$7.14

Record

48%

342-364 (706)

purplegatto<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$92

Value

$71.76

PnL

-$20.24

Record

50%

5891-5982 (11873)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$56.16

Value

$57.33

PnL

+$1.17

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Miami (FL)

Invested

$52

Value

$52

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

1968-2772 (4740)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Miami (FL)

Invested

$50.43

Value

$48.06

PnL

-$2.37

Record

48%

8249-8767 (17016)

NatoAlfista<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$27.93

Value

$27.93

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3891-3854 (7745)

GGLPL<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$5.32

Value

$5.27

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

685-679 (1364)

primm<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$4.62

Value

PnL

+$0.38

Record

46%

1085-1274 (2359)

Research grade

NeutralNorth Carolina at 64%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

North Carolina

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that North Carolina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.