Miami (FL) vs. North Carolina

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Miami (FL) (43%) · Miami (FL) at 80¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 31

Miami (FL)80¢North Carolina20¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

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⚖️

Neutral

Miami (FL)

Consensus Traders

Miami (FL) 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.7K

Combined PnL

$143.96

Smart Money Entry

83¢ → 79.5¢

-4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralMiami (FL) at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Miami (FL)

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Miami (FL)80%

North Carolina21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miami (FL)3 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares19,638

Combined PnL+$200.89

North Carolina4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares7,148

Combined PnL-$56.93

Miami (FL) — 43%North Carolina — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Miami (FL)avg 83¢	$14.9K	$15.1K	+$179.28	55% 7193-5787 (12980)
RN1	Miami (FL)avg 83¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$14.32	54% 56824-49050 (105874)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR	North Carolinaavg 16¢	$766.53	$790.49	+$23.96	49% 777-798 (1575)
VeryLucky888	Miami (FL)avg 82¢	$253.79	$261.07	+$7.28	58% 42202-30652 (72854)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	North Carolinaavg 17¢	$325.89	$249.21	-$76.68	59% 46230-32531 (78761)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Miami (FL)avg 83.6¢	$68.71	$79.69	+$10.97	52% 13853-12630 (26483)
└ Miami (FL) leg	Miami (FL)avg 83.6¢	$48.26	$46.45	-$1.81
└ North Carolina leg	North Carolinaavg 12¢	$20.45	$33.24	+$12.78
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	North Carolinaavg 17¢	$70.23	$66.15	-$4.07	54% 3362-2907 (6269)
HRTradingCTR<$100	North Carolinaavg 22¢	$5.94	$5.81	-$0.14	53% 5014-4502 (9516)

0xheavy888

Miami (FL)

Invested

$14,880.51

Value

$15.1K

PnL

+$179.28

Record

55%

7193-5787 (12980)

RN1

Miami (FL)

Invested

$1,188.56

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$14.32

Record

54%

56824-49050 (105874)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR

North Carolina

Invested

$766.53

Value

$790.49

PnL

+$23.96

Record

49%

777-798 (1575)

VeryLucky888

Miami (FL)

Invested

$253.79

Value

$261.07

PnL

+$7.28

Record

58%

42202-30652 (72854)

UpTheBluesCTR

North Carolina

Invested

$325.89

Value

$249.21

PnL

-$76.68

Record

59%

46230-32531 (78761)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Miami (FL)

Invested

$68.71

Value

$79.69

PnL

+$10.97

Record

52%

13853-12630 (26483)

Both legs:

Miami (FL)$48.2683.6¢-$1.81

North Carolina$20.4512¢+$12.78

HerdoniaCTR<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$70.23

Value

$66.15

PnL

-$4.07

Record

54%

3362-2907 (6269)

HRTradingCTR<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$5.94

Value

$5.81

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

5014-4502 (9516)

Research grade

NeutralMiami (FL) at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Miami (FL)

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Miami (FL) wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.