Mercyhurst vs. Duquesne

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Duquesne (73%) · Duquesne at 73¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Mercyhurst28¢Duquesne72¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Duquesne

Consensus Traders

Duquesne 73%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$81.87

Smart Money Entry

74.3¢ → 72.5¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDuquesne at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Duquesne

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mercyhurst28%

Duquesne73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Duquesne8 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,756

Combined PnL+$72.71

Mercyhurst3 traders

Total Value$69

Total Shares302

Combined PnL+$9.16

Duquesne — 73%Mercyhurst — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Duquesne. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMercyhurst 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDuquesne 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Duquesne 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Duquesneavg 74¢	$599.4	$627.75	+$28.35	55% 5370-4319 (9689)
0X 0xfFFF6537	Duquesneavg 74.7¢	$316.64	$328.51	+$11.87	38% 53-87 (140)
PA Pan9X	Duquesneavg 79¢	$119.45	$115.2	-$4.25	50% 1593-1618 (3211)
PT PT-S7	Duquesneavg 74.6¢	$96.99	$101.4	+$4.41	26% 78-225 (303)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Duquesneavg 74¢	$86.2	$90.28	+$4.08	37% 1030-1738 (2768)
GA Gaditima<$100	Duquesneavg 60.2¢	$85.26	$48.77	+$29.28	48% 278-297 (575)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Mercyhurstavg 19¢	$33.44	$36.96	+$3.52	51% 568-535 (1103)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Duquesneavg 77¢	$29.6	$29.39	-$0.21	50% 3806-3775 (7581)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Duquesneavg 82¢	$22.44	$21.62	-$0.82	50% 155-156 (311)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Mercyhurstavg 22¢	$13.2	$16.2	+$3	38% 550-886 (1436)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Mercyhurstavg 20¢	$13.2	$15.84	+$2.64	45% 261-317 (578)

RN1

Duquesne

Invested

$599.4

Value

$627.75

PnL

+$28.35

Record

55%

5370-4319 (9689)

0xfFFF6537

Duquesne

Invested

$316.64

Value

$328.51

PnL

+$11.87

Record

38%

53-87 (140)

Pan9X

Duquesne

Invested

$119.45

Value

$115.2

PnL

-$4.25

Record

50%

1593-1618 (3211)

PT-S7

Duquesne

Invested

$96.99

Value

$101.4

PnL

+$4.41

Record

26%

78-225 (303)

topdogbigboi<$100

Duquesne

Invested

$86.2

Value

$90.28

PnL

+$4.08

Record

37%

1030-1738 (2768)

Gaditima<$100

Duquesne

Invested

$85.26

Value

$48.77

PnL

+$29.28

Record

48%

278-297 (575)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Mercyhurst

Invested

$33.44

Value

$36.96

PnL

+$3.52

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

6512395314597884<$100

Duquesne

Invested

$29.6

Value

$29.39

PnL

-$0.21

Record

50%

3806-3775 (7581)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Duquesne

Invested

$22.44

Value

$21.62

PnL

-$0.82

Record

50%

155-156 (311)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Mercyhurst

Invested

$13.2

Value

$16.2

PnL

+$3

Record

38%

550-886 (1436)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Mercyhurst

Invested

$13.2

Value

$15.84

PnL

+$2.64

Record

45%

261-317 (578)

Research grade

NeutralDuquesne at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Duquesne

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Duquesne. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMercyhurst 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDuquesne 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Duquesne 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Duquesne wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.