Marshall vs. Old Dominion: O/U 47.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 56¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 33%
$4.7K
$55.49
54.7¢ → 55.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 55¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$17.36 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
FO Forecastication2 | Underavg 54¢ | $884.3 | $925.24 | +$40.94 | 50% 7031-7023 (14054) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $855 | $855 | +$0 | 54% 4884-4115 (8999) |
BA Bagwell306CTR | Overavg 44¢ | $752 | $760.54 | +$8.55 | 59% 4052-2862 (6914) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 46¢ | $169.28 | $160.08 | -$9.2 | 50% 33398-32968 (66366) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 45.5¢ | $98.27 | $96.12 | -$2.15 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
Invested
$1,909.05
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$17.36
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$884.3
Value
$925.24
PnL
+$40.94
Record
50%
7031-7023 (14054)
Invested
$855
Value
$855
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
4884-4115 (8999)
Invested
$752
Value
$760.54
PnL
+$8.55
Record
59%
4052-2862 (6914)
Invested
$169.28
Value
$160.08
PnL
-$9.2
Record
50%
33398-32968 (66366)
Invested
$98.27
Value
$96.12
PnL
-$2.15
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.