Marshall vs. Old Dominion: O/U 45.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 52¢ · $13K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 60%
1 arb excluded
$13.2K
$153.24
48.6¢ → 51.5¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 47.5¢ | $4.9K | $5.4K | +$406.57 | 54% 17133-14341 (31474) |
PW PwaddlerCTR | Underavg 51¢ | $5.4K | $5.1K | -$266.41 | 48% 412-452 (864) |
MA MAGATheeStallion | Overavg 51.3¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$26.59 | 57% 245-184 (429) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 52.5¢ | $1.3K | $480 | -$17.3 | 58% 41739-30322 (72061) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Overavg 48.2¢ | $132.53 | $135.14 | +$2.61 | 58% 28550-21073 (49623) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 48.2¢ | $84.4 | $91 | +$6.6 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 52.3¢ | $48.13 | $44.14 | -$3.99 | |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $61.74 | $65.52 | +$3.78 | 54% 2980-2562 (5542) |
Invested
$4,893.85
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$406.57
Record
54%
17133-14341 (31474)
Invested
$5,434.89
Value
$5.1K
PnL
-$266.41
Record
48%
412-452 (864)
Invested
$1,999.92
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$26.59
Record
57%
245-184 (429)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,280.99
Value
$480
PnL
-$17.3
Record
58%
41739-30322 (72061)
Invested
$132.53
Value
$135.14
PnL
+$2.61
Record
58%
28550-21073 (49623)
Both legs:
Invested
$61.74
Value
$65.52
PnL
+$3.78
Record
54%
2980-2562 (5542)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.