Spread: Louisiana Tech (-6.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold South Alabama (100%) · South Alabama at 52¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
South Alabama
5
South Alabama 100%
$4.9K
$15.39
51.3¢ → 51.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSouth Alabama at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on South Alabama. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | South Alabamaavg 51.4¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.16 | 54% 17016-14265 (31281) |
PL pltrkr111 | South Alabamaavg 51¢ | $1,000 | $1.0K | +$9.8 | 54% 726-610 (1336) |
 VeryLucky888 | South Alabamaavg 51.3¢ | $804.71 | $807.13 | +$2.42 | 58% 41297-29942 (71239) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | South Alabamaavg 51¢ | $30.43 | $30.73 | +$0.3 | 57% 13390-10234 (23624) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | South Alabamaavg 52¢ | $30.16 | $29.87 | -$0.29 | 54% 2951-2534 (5485) |
Invested
$3,001.12
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.16
Record
54%
17016-14265 (31281)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$9.8
Record
54%
726-610 (1336)
VeryLucky888Invested
$804.71
Value
$807.13
PnL
+$2.42
Record
58%
41297-29942 (71239)
Invested
$30.43
Value
$30.73
PnL
+$0.3
Record
57%
13390-10234 (23624)
Invested
$30.16
Value
$29.87
PnL
-$0.29
Record
54%
2951-2534 (5485)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.