Louisiana Tech vs. South Alabama

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Louisiana Tech (18%) · Louisiana Tech at 51¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 31

Louisiana Tech51¢South Alabama49¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Louisiana Tech

Consensus Traders

Louisiana Tech 18%

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

$580.05

Smart Money Entry

44.6¢ → 51¢

+14% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralLouisiana Tech at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Louisiana Tech

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Louisiana Tech51%

South Alabama49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Louisiana Tech2 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares16,691

Combined PnL+$43.26

South Alabama9 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,100

Combined PnL+$536.78

Louisiana Tech — 18%South Alabama — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Louisiana Tech. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSouth Alabama 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpSouth Alabama 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrLouisiana Tech 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000South Alabama 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Louisiana Techavg 44.2¢	$7.3K	$7.3K	+$42.14	50% 5881-5972 (11853)
HE HerdoniaCTR	South Alabamaavg 32¢	$573.45	$994.57	+$421.12	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
TO torta.techCTR	South Alabamaavg 47.5¢	$802.91	$854.46	+$51.55	63% 8137-4876 (13013)
SE sentrio	Louisiana Techavg 68¢	$153.49	$155.19	+$1.13	50% 24924-24614 (49538)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	South Alabamaavg 47.2¢	$122.63	$141.27	+$18.64	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	South Alabamaavg 32¢	$32.64	$56.61	+$23.97	54% 2996-2576 (5572)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	South Alabamaavg 31.9¢	$47.69	$47.84	-$0.6	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	South Alabamaavg 32¢	$22.08	$38.3	+$16.22	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	South Alabamaavg 36.4¢	$8.38	$12.77	+$4.39	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	South Alabamaavg 54¢	$9.18	$9.44	+$0.26	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	South Alabamaavg 43¢	$4.3	$5.55	+$1.25	51% 1460-1410 (2870)

purplegatto

Louisiana Tech

Invested

$7,284.79

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$42.14

Record

50%

5881-5972 (11853)

HerdoniaCTR

South Alabama

Invested

$573.45

Value

$994.57

PnL

+$421.12

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

torta.techCTR

South Alabama

Invested

$802.91

Value

$854.46

PnL

+$51.55

Record

63%

8137-4876 (13013)

sentrio

Louisiana Tech

Invested

$153.49

Value

$155.19

PnL

+$1.13

Record

50%

24924-24614 (49538)

justaluckydudeCTR

South Alabama

Invested

$122.63

Value

$141.27

PnL

+$18.64

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

South Alabama

Invested

$32.64

Value

$56.61

PnL

+$23.97

Record

54%

2996-2576 (5572)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

South Alabama

Invested

$47.69

Value

$47.84

PnL

-$0.6

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

South Alabama

Invested

$22.08

Value

$38.3

PnL

+$16.22

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

South Alabama

Invested

$8.38

Value

$12.77

PnL

+$4.39

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

South Alabama

Invested

$9.18

Value

$9.44

PnL

+$0.26

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

South Alabama

Invested

$4.3

Value

$5.55

PnL

+$1.25

Record

51%

1460-1410 (2870)

Research grade

NeutralLouisiana Tech at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Louisiana Tech

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Louisiana Tech. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSouth Alabama 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpSouth Alabama 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrLouisiana Tech 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000South Alabama 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Louisiana Tech wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.