Louisiana vs. Louisiana-Monroe: O/U 47.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 51¢ · $800 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
$800.42
-$3.81
54¢ → 50.5¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 54¢ | $311.47 | $288.4 | -$23.07 | 48% 2255-2437 (4692) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $265.33 | $282.63 | +$17.3 | 34% 564-1116 (1680) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $97.92 | $99.96 | +$2.04 | 52% 353-330 (683) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $48.6 | $45 | -$3.6 | 66% 1793-926 (2719) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $41.4 | $44.1 | +$2.7 | 57% 3457-2627 (6084) |
TO tomb2456CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $39.5 | $40.33 | +$0.82 | 54% 31-26 (57) |
Invested
$311.47
Value
$288.4
PnL
-$23.07
Record
48%
2255-2437 (4692)
Invested
$265.33
Value
$282.63
PnL
+$17.3
Record
34%
564-1116 (1680)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$97.92
Value
$99.96
PnL
+$2.04
Record
52%
353-330 (683)
Invested
$48.6
Value
$45
PnL
-$3.6
Record
66%
1793-926 (2719)
Invested
$41.4
Value
$44.1
PnL
+$2.7
Record
57%
3457-2627 (6084)
Invested
$39.5
Value
$40.33
PnL
+$0.82
Record
54%
31-26 (57)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.