Spread: Louisiana (-8.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Louisiana (38%) · Louisiana at 54¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 13

Louisiana54¢Louisiana-Monroe46¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Louisiana

Consensus Traders

Louisiana 38%

Total Value

$28.0K

Combined PnL

$82.5

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 53.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralLouisiana at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Louisiana

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Louisiana54%

Louisiana-Monroe47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Louisiana3 traders

Total Value$15.5K

Total Shares29,010

Combined PnL-$169.96

Louisiana-Monroe5 traders

Total Value$12.5K

Total Shares26,628

Combined PnL+$252.46

Louisiana — 38%Louisiana-Monroe — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Louisiana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLouisiana 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLouisiana-Monroe 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Louisiana-Monroe 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FeedTheBigBird	Louisianaavg 53.9¢	$10.8K	$10.7K	-$80.06	62% 16-10 (26)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Louisiana-Monroeavg 46¢	$9.0K	$9.2K	+$195.62	57% 3461-2635 (6096)
LI lightotunnel35	Louisianaavg 54¢	$4.9K	$4.8K	-$90	11% 7-55 (62)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Louisiana-Monroeavg 46¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$13.65	42% 27-37 (64)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Louisiana-Monroeavg 46¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$21.74	4% 20-525 (545)
VeryLucky888CTR	Louisiana-Monroeavg 46¢	$990.99	$937.66	+$21.46	52% 881-800 (1681)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR	Louisiana-Monroeavg 47¢	$111.86	$111.86	+$0	55% 213-176 (389)
GH ghorrock<$100	Louisianaavg 53¢	$9.68	$9.78	+$0.1	53% 1163-1023 (2186)

FeedTheBigBird

Louisiana

Invested

$10,780.06

Value

$10.7K

PnL

-$80.06

Record

62%

16-10 (26)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$8,998.33

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$195.62

Record

57%

3461-2635 (6096)

lightotunnel35

Louisiana

Invested

$4,860

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$90

Record

11%

7-55 (62)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$1,255.8

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.65

Record

42%

27-37 (64)

pltrkr111CTR

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$21.74

Record

20-525 (545)

VeryLucky888CTR

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$990.99

Value

$937.66

PnL

+$21.46

Record

52%

881-800 (1681)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$111.86

Value

$111.86

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

213-176 (389)

ghorrock<$100

Louisiana

Invested

$9.68

Value

$9.78

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

1163-1023 (2186)

Research grade

NeutralLouisiana at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Louisiana

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Louisiana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLouisiana 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedLouisiana-Monroe 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Louisiana-Monroe 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Louisiana wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.