Louisiana vs. Louisiana-Monroe

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Louisiana (38%) · Louisiana at 78¢ · $713 held · ends Nov 13

Louisiana78¢Louisiana-Monroe22¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Louisiana

Consensus Traders

Louisiana 38%

Total Value

$713.12

Combined PnL

$16.98

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 77.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralLouisiana at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Louisiana

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Louisiana78%

Louisiana-Monroe23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Louisiana-Monroe5 traders

Total Value$380.7

Total Shares1,719

Combined PnL+$14.83

Louisiana3 traders

Total Value$332.42

Total Shares426

Combined PnL+$2.14

Louisiana-Monroe — 63%Louisiana — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Louisiana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLouisiana-Monroe 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Louisiana-Monroe 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Louisiana-Monroeavg 21¢	$209.46	$218.78	+$9.97	47% 22-25 (47)
GC GC-P	Louisianaavg 77¢	$179.68	$182.01	+$2.33	30% 193-457 (650)
nigiri99	Louisianaavg 78¢	$1.0K	$130.26	-$0	52% 388-362 (750)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Louisiana-Monroeavg 22¢	$73.69	$75.37	+$1.67	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Louisiana-Monroeavg 21¢	$34.74	$36.45	+$1.71	47% 564-628 (1192)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Louisiana-Monroeavg 22¢	$33.66	$34.42	+$0.76	44% 177-221 (398)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Louisianaavg 78.2¢	$20.34	$20.15	-$0.19	64% 147-81 (228)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Louisiana-Monroeavg 21¢	$14.97	$15.68	+$0.71	53% 1117-973 (2090)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$209.46

Value

$218.78

PnL

+$9.97

Record

47%

22-25 (47)

GC-P

Louisiana

Invested

$179.68

Value

$182.01

PnL

+$2.33

Record

30%

193-457 (650)

nigiri99

Louisiana

Invested

$1,009.26

Value

$130.26

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

388-362 (750)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$73.69

Value

$75.37

PnL

+$1.67

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$34.74

Value

$36.45

PnL

+$1.71

Record

47%

564-628 (1192)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$33.66

Value

$34.42

PnL

+$0.76

Record

44%

177-221 (398)

thatsabing0<$100

Louisiana

Invested

$20.34

Value

$20.15

PnL

-$0.19

Record

64%

147-81 (228)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$14.97

Value

$15.68

PnL

+$0.71

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

Research grade

NeutralLouisiana at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Louisiana

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Louisiana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLouisiana-Monroe 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Louisiana-Monroe 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Louisiana wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.