Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Louisville, while the market favors North Carolina (62%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Louisville (-4.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Louisville (63%) · Louisville at 39¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Louisville39¢North Carolina61¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Louisville

Consensus Traders

Louisville 63%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$136.68

Smart Money Entry

44.3¢ → 38.5¢

-13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralLouisville at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Louisville

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors North Carolina 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Louisville39%

North Carolina62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Louisville5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,964

Combined PnL+$121.76

North Carolina3 traders

Total Value$837.54

Total Shares1,551

Combined PnL+$14.92

Louisville — 63%North Carolina — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettesCTR	Louisvilleavg 44¢	$937.41	$1.0K	+$95.87	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
HO HomeRunHazard	North Carolinaavg 53¢	$783.64	$798.42	+$14.79	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Louisvilleavg 45¢	$317.45	$342.15	+$24.69	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	North Carolinaavg 54¢	$31.86	$31.86	+$0	53% 310-274 (584)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Louisvilleavg 46.1¢	$26.09	$27.16	+$1.07	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Louisvilleavg 46¢	$27.14	$27.14	+$0	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
GH ghorrock<$100	North Carolinaavg 53¢	$7.12	$7.26	+$0.13	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Louisvilleavg 45¢	$5.58	$5.7	+$0.12	54% 1525-1316 (2841)

cigarettesCTR

Louisville

Invested

$937.41

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$95.87

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

HomeRunHazard

North Carolina

Invested

$783.64

Value

$798.42

PnL

+$14.79

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Louisville

Invested

$317.45

Value

$342.15

PnL

+$24.69

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$31.86

Value

$31.86

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

310-274 (584)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Louisville

Invested

$26.09

Value

$27.16

PnL

+$1.07

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

LimousinCTR<$100

Louisville

Invested

$27.14

Value

$27.14

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

ghorrock<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$7.12

Value

$7.26

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Louisville

Invested

$5.58

Value

$5.7

PnL

+$0.12

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

Research grade

NeutralLouisville at 39%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Louisville

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors North Carolina 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Louisville wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.