Spread: Louisville (-2.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Louisville (33%) · Louisville at 68¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Louisville68¢North Carolina32¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Louisville

Consensus Traders

Louisville 33%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$130.61

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 68¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralLouisville at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Louisville

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Louisville68%

North Carolina32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Louisville3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,191

Combined PnL-$47.09

North Carolina6 traders

Total Value$757.45

Total Shares2,328

Combined PnL-$83.52

Louisville — 33%North Carolina — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Louisville. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Louisville) and the top 1000 (8 on North Carolina) disagree here.

ctrNorth Carolina 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedLouisville 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000North Carolina 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Louisvilleavg 65¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$15.39	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
PR primmCTR	North Carolinaavg 35.3¢	$712.84	$647.04	-$65.8	59% 1044-726 (1770)
38 38791873984189	Louisvilleavg 60.6¢	$285.82	$261.8	-$24.01	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	North Carolinaavg 42¢	$67.83	$58.14	-$9.69	45% 41-50 (91)
PA Pan9X<$100	Louisvilleavg 65.2¢	$87.36	$52.34	-$7.68	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	North Carolinaavg 42¢	$22.46	$19.25	-$3.21	34% 119-227 (346)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	North Carolinaavg 42¢	$18.19	$15.59	-$2.6	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	North Carolinaavg 42¢	$17.85	$15.3	-$2.55	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	North Carolinaavg 36¢	$1.8	$2.13	+$0.32	57% 3591-2667 (6258)

RN1

Louisville

Invested

$1,110.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$15.39

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

primmCTR

North Carolina

Invested

$712.84

Value

$647.04

PnL

-$65.8

Record

59%

1044-726 (1770)

38791873984189

Louisville

Invested

$285.82

Value

$261.8

PnL

-$24.01

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

dv-pmCTR<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$67.83

Value

$58.14

PnL

-$9.69

Record

45%

41-50 (91)

Pan9X<$100

Louisville

Invested

$87.36

Value

$52.34

PnL

-$7.68

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

OddstormCTR<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$22.46

Value

$19.25

PnL

-$3.21

Record

34%

119-227 (346)

VenusianCTR<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$18.19

Value

$15.59

PnL

-$2.6

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$17.85

Value

$15.3

PnL

-$2.55

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

takeormakeCTR<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$1.8

Value

$2.13

PnL

+$0.32

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

Research grade

NeutralLouisville at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Louisville

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Louisville. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Louisville) and the top 1000 (8 on North Carolina) disagree here.

ctrNorth Carolina 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedLouisville 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000North Carolina 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Louisville wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.