Louisville vs. North Carolina

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Louisville (33%) · Louisville at 63¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 15

Louisville63¢North Carolina37¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Louisville

Consensus Traders

Louisville 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.4K

Combined PnL

$16.9

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 62.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralLouisville at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Louisville

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Louisville63%

North Carolina38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Louisville3 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares16,198

Combined PnL+$80.99

North Carolina6 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares16,161

Combined PnL-$64.09

Louisville — 33%North Carolina — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Louisville. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperLouisville 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNorth Carolina 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNorth Carolina 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000North Carolina 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Louisvilleavg 62¢	$9.9K	$10.0K	+$79.95	3% 4-156 (160)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	North Carolinaavg 38¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	-$51.68	48% 34-37 (71)
38 38791873984189CTR	North Carolinaavg 38¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$15.76	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
VeryLucky888CTR	North Carolinaavg 37¢	$579.58	$500.15	+$10.05	54% 1473-1278 (2751)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	North Carolinaavg 38¢	$399.76	$394.5	-$5.26	44% 44-57 (101)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	North Carolinaavg 50¢	$200	$200	-$0	69% 134-60 (194)
└ Louisville leg	Louisvilleavg 50¢	$100	$124	+$24
└ North Carolina leg	North Carolinaavg 50¢	$100	$76	-$24
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	North Carolinaavg 38¢	$87.02	$85.87	-$1.14	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
SI Siddhartha1<$100	Louisvilleavg 62¢	$80.6	$81.25	+$0.65	57% 105-79 (184)
MA manoamano<$100	Louisvilleavg 62¢	$49.16	$49.56	+$0.4	55% 32-26 (58)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	North Carolinaavg 38¢	$42.31	$42.82	+$0.51	53% 1854-1648 (3502)
└ North Carolina leg	North Carolinaavg 38¢	$22.86	$22.56	-$0.3
└ Louisville leg	Louisvilleavg 60¢	$19.45	$20.26	+$0.81
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	North Carolinaavg 38¢	$22.04	$21.75	-$0.29	27% 83-229 (312)

Kch-Temp

Louisville

Invested

$9,913.29

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$79.95

Record

4-156 (160)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

North Carolina

Invested

$3,928.06

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$51.68

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

38791873984189CTR

North Carolina

Invested

$1,197.67

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$15.76

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

VeryLucky888CTR

North Carolina

Invested

$579.58

Value

$500.15

PnL

+$10.05

Record

54%

1473-1278 (2751)

0x0A77exmmCTR

North Carolina

Invested

$399.76

Value

$394.5

PnL

-$5.26

Record

44%

44-57 (101)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

-$0

Record

69%

134-60 (194)

Both legs:

Louisville$10050¢+$24

North Carolina$10050¢-$24

Pan9XCTR<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$87.02

Value

$85.87

PnL

-$1.14

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

Siddhartha1<$100

Louisville

Invested

$80.6

Value

$81.25

PnL

+$0.65

Record

57%

105-79 (184)

manoamano<$100

Louisville

Invested

$49.16

Value

$49.56

PnL

+$0.4

Record

55%

32-26 (58)

ghorrockARB<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$42.31

Value

$42.82

PnL

+$0.51

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

Both legs:

North Carolina$22.8638¢-$0.3

Louisville$19.4560¢+$0.81

PT-S7CTR<$100

North Carolina

Invested

$22.04

Value

$21.75

PnL

-$0.29

Record

27%

83-229 (312)

Research grade

NeutralLouisville at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Louisville

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Louisville. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperLouisville 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNorth Carolina 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNorth Carolina 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000North Carolina 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Louisville wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.