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nigiri99CTRLafayetteColgateLafayetteColgateColgate
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Lafayette — but Colgate won instead.
Spread: Colgate (-10.5)
Resolved Colgate. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Lafayette. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Lafayette 50%
Total Value
$256
Combined PnL
-$2.55
Smart Money Signal
Lafayette
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Colgate100%
Lafayette0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Lafayette2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares261
Combined PnL-$133.01
Colgate3 traders
Total Value$256
Total Shares256
Combined PnL+$130.46
Lafayette — 40%Colgate — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
nigiri99CTR | Lafayetteavg 51¢ | $130.01 | — | -$130.01 | 52% 573-538 (1111) |
38 38791873984189 | Colgateavg 49¢ | $120.5 | $245.92 | +$125.42 | 48% 3273-3600 (6873) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Lafayetteavg 50¢ | $3 | — | -$3 | 45% 268-322 (590) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Colgateavg 50¢ | $5.04 | $10.08 | +$5.04 | 53% 1854-1648 (3502) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Colgateavg 50¢ | $1.4K | — | +$0 | 69% 134-60 (194) |
nigiri99CTRInvested
$130.01
Value
—
PnL
-$130.01
Record
52%
573-538 (1111)
38
38791873984189Invested
$120.5
Value
$245.92
PnL
+$125.42
Record
48%
3273-3600 (6873)
FO
Forecastication2CTR<$100Invested
$3
Value
—
PnL
-$3
Record
45%
268-322 (590)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
$5.04
Value
$10.08
PnL
+$5.04
Record
53%
1854-1648 (3502)
OV
overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesInvested
$1,400
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
134-60 (194)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x1b4a83f5...4d1817
Slug
cfb-lafay-colg-2026-11-14-spread-home-10pt5