Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
O/U 53.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 48¢ · $210 held · ended Sep 5
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$209.93
-$5.68
48.7¢ → 48¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Underavg 50¢ | $102.9 | $98.6 | -$4.3 | 53% 60181-52537 (112718) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $47.15 | $48.15 | +$1 | 58% 45573-32987 (78560) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $26.4 | $26.4 | +$0 | 58% 50275-36314 (86589) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Overavg 61¢ | $23.2 | $20.47 | -$2.73 | 59% 31932-22560 (54492) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $15.96 | $16.3 | +$0.34 | 54% 18039-15168 (33207) |
RN1CTRInvested
$102.9
Value
$98.6
PnL
-$4.3
Record
53%
60181-52537 (112718)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$47.15
Value
$48.15
PnL
+$1
Record
58%
45573-32987 (78560)
Invested
$26.4
Value
$26.4
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
50275-36314 (86589)
Invested
$23.2
Value
$20.47
PnL
-$2.73
Record
59%
31932-22560 (54492)
Invested
$15.96
Value
$16.3
PnL
+$0.34
Record
54%
18039-15168 (33207)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.