Kent State vs. Sacramento State: O/U 47.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 84¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 31

Over17¢Under83¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

Total Value

$18.7K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 83.5¢

+64% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over17%

Under84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$15.9K

Total Shares28,468

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares6,275

Combined PnL-$310.86

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50¢	$12.6K	$7.0K	+$754.68	54% 17133-14341 (31474)
IC ic4cream	Underavg 51¢	$4.8K	$5.3K	+$425.26	59% 2630-1847 (4477)
heyboy800	Underavg 51.9¢	$3.2K	$3.4K	+$248.74	61% 928-582 (1510)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Overavg 49¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$251	54% 4876-4103 (8979)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 49¢	$551.3	$469.3	-$53.33	58% 41739-30322 (72061)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Underavg 51.8¢	$172.31	$186.2	+$13.89	54% 2980-2562 (5542)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 49.1¢	$43.4	$38.93	-$4.47	58% 28550-21073 (49623)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$24.48	$23.46	-$1.02	50% 3813-3770 (7583)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$23.92	$22.88	-$1.04	49% 7817-8099 (15916)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$12,578

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$754.68

Record

54%

17133-14341 (31474)

ic4cream

Under

Invested

$4,819.5

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$425.26

Record

59%

2630-1847 (4477)

heyboy800

Under

Invested

$3,171.54

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$248.74

Record

61%

928-582 (1510)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Over

Invested

$2,458.32

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$251

Record

54%

4876-4103 (8979)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$551.3

Value

$469.3

PnL

-$53.33

Record

58%

41739-30322 (72061)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Under

Invested

$172.31

Value

$186.2

PnL

+$13.89

Record

54%

2980-2562 (5542)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.4

Value

$38.93

PnL

-$4.47

Record

58%

28550-21073 (49623)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.48

Value

$23.46

PnL

-$1.02

Record

50%

3813-3770 (7583)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.92

Value

$22.88

PnL

-$1.04

Record

49%

7817-8099 (15916)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (8 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.