Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kent State, while the market favors Sacramento State (55%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Kent State (-8.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Kent State (71%) · Kent State at 46¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Kent State
7
Kent State 71%
$3.6K
-$15.94
46.6¢ → 45.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralKent State at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Sacramento State 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLooCTR | Kent Stateavg 46¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$13.6 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Sacramento Stateavg 53¢ | $863 | $854.86 | -$8.14 | 54% 17119-14335 (31454) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Kent Stateavg 46¢ | $672.52 | $694.45 | +$21.93 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
MO mooseborzoii | Sacramento Stateavg 49¢ | $484 | $518.18 | +$34.18 | 50% 1184-1181 (2365) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Kent Stateavg 51¢ | $516.08 | $272.71 | -$49.26 | 58% 41507-30134 (71641) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Kent Stateavg 46.4¢ | $39 | $38.22 | -$0.78 | 58% 28421-20980 (49401) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Kent Stateavg 46¢ | $23.77 | $23.51 | -$0.26 | 57% 13613-10430 (24043) |
Invested
$1,251.43
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$13.6
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
Invested
$863
Value
$854.86
PnL
-$8.14
Record
54%
17119-14335 (31454)
Invested
$672.52
Value
$694.45
PnL
+$21.93
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
Invested
$484
Value
$518.18
PnL
+$34.18
Record
50%
1184-1181 (2365)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$516.08
Value
$272.71
PnL
-$49.26
Record
58%
41507-30134 (71641)
Invested
$39
Value
$38.22
PnL
-$0.78
Record
58%
28421-20980 (49401)
Invested
$23.77
Value
$23.51
PnL
-$0.26
Record
57%
13613-10430 (24043)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.