Spread: Kent State (-7.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Sacramento State (40%) · Sacramento State at 59¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31

Kent State42¢Sacramento State58¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sacramento State

Consensus Traders

Sacramento State 40%

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

-$55.99

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 58.5¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSacramento State at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sacramento State

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kent State42%

Sacramento State59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sacramento State4 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares6,140

Combined PnL-$788.61

Kent State6 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,305

Combined PnL+$732.62

Sacramento State — 40%Kent State — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Sacramento State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKent State 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Kent State 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961	Sacramento Stateavg 53¢	$2.9K	$2.1K	-$784.88	48% 225-243 (468)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Kent Stateavg 48¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$378	54% 4876-4103 (8979)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Kent Stateavg 47¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$321.84	54% 590-507 (1097)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Kent Stateavg 44.2¢	$349.71	$324.53	-$25.18	54% 10684-9283 (19967)
TO torta.tech	Sacramento Stateavg 60¢	$330	$324.5	-$5.5	63% 8113-4855 (12968)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Kent Stateavg 48¢	$197.16	$252.61	+$47.24	46% 430-507 (937)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 53¢	$92.57	$95.13	+$4.63	58% 28550-21073 (49623)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Kent Stateavg 49.1¢	$20.81	$26.07	+$5.27	49% 7817-8099 (15916)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Kent Stateavg 48¢	$19.43	$24.89	+$5.46	57% 13705-10482 (24187)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 45¢	$19.8	$16.94	-$2.86	47% 313-354 (667)

0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961

Sacramento State

Invested

$2,868.89

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$784.88

Record

48%

225-243 (468)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Kent State

Invested

$1,344

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$378

Record

54%

4876-4103 (8979)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Kent State

Invested

$1,043.2

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$321.84

Record

54%

590-507 (1097)

justaluckydudeCTR

Kent State

Invested

$349.71

Value

$324.53

PnL

-$25.18

Record

54%

10684-9283 (19967)

torta.tech

Sacramento State

Invested

$330

Value

$324.5

PnL

-$5.5

Record

63%

8113-4855 (12968)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Kent State

Invested

$197.16

Value

$252.61

PnL

+$47.24

Record

46%

430-507 (937)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$92.57

Value

$95.13

PnL

+$4.63

Record

58%

28550-21073 (49623)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Kent State

Invested

$20.81

Value

$26.07

PnL

+$5.27

Record

49%

7817-8099 (15916)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Kent State

Invested

$19.43

Value

$24.89

PnL

+$5.46

Record

57%

13705-10482 (24187)

SunflowaRebuildYear<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$19.8

Value

$16.94

PnL

-$2.86

Record

47%

313-354 (667)

Research grade

NeutralSacramento State at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Sacramento State

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Sacramento State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKent State 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Kent State 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sacramento State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.