Spread: Kent State (-5.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Sacramento State (67%) · Sacramento State at 59¢ · $581 held · ended Oct 31
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Neutral
Sacramento State
3
Sacramento State 67%
$581.12
$23.43
53.5¢ → 59¢
+10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSacramento State at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justaluckydude | Sacramento Stateavg 53.4¢ | $316.06 | $348.98 | +$32.92 | 53% 10758-9359 (20117) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Kent Stateavg 58¢ | $219.82 | $208.45 | -$11.37 | 50% 7014-7005 (14019) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Sacramento Stateavg 54.3¢ | $21.81 | $23.7 | +$1.88 | 49% 7853-8150 (16003) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.