Spread: Kent State (-4.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Kent State (50%) · Kent State at 59¢ · $594 held · ended Oct 31

Kent State59¢Sacramento State41¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kent State

Consensus Traders

Kent State 50%

Total Value

$593.55

Combined PnL

-$282.18

Smart Money Entry

67.4¢ → 59¢

-12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralKent State at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kent State

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kent State59%

Sacramento State41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kent State2 traders

Total Value$376.26

Total Shares965

Combined PnL-$273.62

Sacramento State2 traders

Total Value$217.29

Total Shares494

Combined PnL-$8.56

Kent State — 50%Sacramento State — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AV averagejoetraders	Kent Stateavg 66¢	$500	$195	-$135	56% 534-422 (956)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Kent Stateavg 68.8¢	$464.78	$181.26	-$138.62	53% 418-378 (796)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Sacramento Stateavg 45.5¢	$191.06	$172.2	-$18.86	53% 10758-9359 (20117)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 32.5¢	$34.79	$45.09	+$10.3	49% 7853-8150 (16003)

averagejoetraders

Kent State

Invested

$500

Value

$195

PnL

-$135

Record

56%

534-422 (956)

oxe78sh4w98

Kent State

Invested

$464.78

Value

$181.26

PnL

-$138.62

Record

53%

418-378 (796)

justaluckydudeCTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$191.06

Value

$172.2

PnL

-$18.86

Record

53%

10758-9359 (20117)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$34.79

Value

$45.09

PnL

+$10.3

Record

49%

7853-8150 (16003)

Research grade

NeutralKent State at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kent State

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kent State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.