Spread: Kent State (-1.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Kent State (50%) · Kent State at 62¢ · $820 held · ended Oct 31

Kent State62¢Sacramento State38¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kent State

Consensus Traders

Kent State 50%

Total Value

$819.73

Combined PnL

-$241.8

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 62¢

-20% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralKent State at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kent State

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kent State62%

Sacramento State38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kent State2 traders

Total Value$547.77

Total Shares970

Combined PnL-$203.44

Sacramento State2 traders

Total Value$271.96

Total Shares678

Combined PnL-$38.35

Kent State — 50%Sacramento State — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AV averagejoetraders	Kent Stateavg 77¢	$500	$282.5	-$102.5	56% 534-422 (956)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Kent Stateavg 78¢	$469.51	$265.27	-$100.94	53% 418-378 (796)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Sacramento Stateavg 47.4¢	$290.56	$232.9	-$57.66	53% 10758-9359 (20117)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Sacramento Stateavg 21¢	$19.75	$39.05	+$19.3	49% 7853-8150 (16003)

averagejoetraders

Kent State

Invested

$500

Value

$282.5

PnL

-$102.5

Record

56%

534-422 (956)

oxe78sh4w98

Kent State

Invested

$469.51

Value

$265.27

PnL

-$100.94

Record

53%

418-378 (796)

justaluckydudeCTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$290.56

Value

$232.9

PnL

-$57.66

Record

53%

10758-9359 (20117)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Sacramento State

Invested

$19.75

Value

$39.05

PnL

+$19.3

Record

49%

7853-8150 (16003)

Research grade

NeutralKent State at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kent State

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kent State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.