Spread: Kent State (-10.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Sacramento State (67%) · Sacramento State at 66¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Sacramento State
3
Sacramento State 67%
2 arb excluded
$1.6K
$55
51.9¢ → 65.5¢
+26% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSacramento State at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunflowaRebuildYear | Sacramento Stateavg 52¢ | $701.48 | $803.16 | +$101.68 | 47% 313-354 (667) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Kent Stateavg 47¢ | $470 | $404.63 | -$60 | 58% 41739-30322 (72061) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Kent Stateavg 36¢ | $191.16 | $176.79 | -$14.37 | 54% 10684-9283 (19967) |
| └ Kent State leg | Kent Stateavg 36¢ | $161.55 | $132.37 | -$29.18 | |
| └ Sacramento State leg | Sacramento Stateavg 47¢ | $29.61 | $44.42 | +$14.81 | |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Kent Stateavg 48¢ | $94.08 | $104.1 | +$10.01 | 49% 7817-8099 (15916) |
| └ Sacramento State leg | Sacramento Stateavg 40¢ | $38.4 | $57.16 | +$18.76 | |
| └ Kent State leg | Kent Stateavg 48¢ | $55.68 | $46.94 | -$8.74 | |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Sacramento Stateavg 51¢ | $79.56 | $92.88 | +$13.32 | 50% 3813-3770 (7583) |
Invested
$701.48
Value
$803.16
PnL
+$101.68
Record
47%
313-354 (667)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$470
Value
$404.63
PnL
-$60
Record
58%
41739-30322 (72061)
Invested
$191.16
Value
$176.79
PnL
-$14.37
Record
54%
10684-9283 (19967)
Both legs:
Invested
$94.08
Value
$104.1
PnL
+$10.01
Record
49%
7817-8099 (15916)
Both legs:
Invested
$79.56
Value
$92.88
PnL
+$13.32
Record
50%
3813-3770 (7583)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.