Kent State vs. Sacramento State

14 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Kent State (45%) · Kent State at 75¢ · $196K held · ended Oct 31

Kent State75¢Sacramento State25¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kent State

Consensus Traders

Kent State 45%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$195.7K

Combined PnL

$-23.7K

Smart Money Entry

74.9¢ → 74.5¢

-1% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralKent State at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kent State

14 of 31 top traders (45%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kent State75%

Sacramento State26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kent State14 traders

Total Value$150.2K

Total Shares227,349

Combined PnL$-20.1K

Sacramento State17 traders

Total Value$42.3K

Total Shares124,473

Combined PnL$-3.5K

Kent State — 45%Sacramento State — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

35% of non-arb traders are on Kent State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSacramento State 63% · 8

Diverging

sharpKent State 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrSacramento State 67% · 18

Diverging

Hand-pickedSacramento State 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Sacramento State 64% · 25

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Kent Stateavg 77¢	$68.5K	$58.7K	$-9.8K	54% 1218-1024 (2242)
ET ethanaz	Kent Stateavg 75.1¢	$50.4K	$44.4K	$-6.0K	52% 664-618 (1282)
KK kkookkoo	Kent Stateavg 72¢	$23.0K	$21.1K	$-1.9K	51% 600-575 (1175)
3648393489047	Kent Stateavg 73.3¢	$17.2K	$15.5K	$-1.7K	61% 1123-708 (1831)
NooseracCTR	Sacramento Stateavg 27¢	$10.8K	$13.6K	$-3.0K	52% 5769-5340 (11109)
0xheavy888CTR	Sacramento Stateavg 27¢	$5.4K	$6.8K	-$500	56% 7097-5686 (12783)
RN1CTR	Sacramento Stateavg 30.5¢	$5.4K	$6.0K	+$607.82	54% 56479-48663 (105142)
MA MastermoneyCTR	Sacramento Stateavg 34.5¢	$5.3K	$5.2K	-$70.08	46% 203-239 (442)
TO torta.tech	Kent Stateavg 77¢	$5.9K	$5.1K	-$847.57	63% 8113-4855 (12968)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Sacramento Stateavg 27¢	$3.3K	$4.2K	-$926.39	54% 17133-14341 (31474)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Kent Stateavg 62¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$182.59	46% 430-507 (937)
VeryLucky888CTR	Sacramento Stateavg 27¢	$2.1K	$2.6K	+$523.31	58% 41739-30322 (72061)
Mr.ApeCTR	Sacramento Stateavg 41.4¢	$2.3K	$1.9K	-$413.7	56% 725-567 (1292)
EN ENDBOSSLLC	Kent Stateavg 63¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$66.66	41% 264-375 (639)
AV averagejoetradersARB<$100	Kent Stateavg 78.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$37.3	56% 530-420 (950)
└ Kent State leg	Kent Stateavg 78.5¢	$869	$852.6	-$16.4
└ Sacramento State leg	Sacramento Stateavg 24.9¢	$279.94	$259.05	-$20.89
OX oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100	Kent Stateavg 79.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$38.7	53% 416-376 (792)
└ Kent State leg	Kent Stateavg 79.5¢	$842.69	$816.01	-$26.68
└ Sacramento State leg	Sacramento Stateavg 24.1¢	$258.44	$246.42	-$12.02
HE HerdoniaCTR	Sacramento Stateavg 27¢	$825.91	$1.0K	+$214.13	54% 3326-2874 (6200)
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR	Sacramento Stateavg 33¢	$495	$510	+$15	54% 180-156 (336)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Kent Stateavg 70.3¢	$511.65	$493.53	-$18.12	54% 10684-9283 (19967)
└ Kent State leg	Kent Stateavg 70.3¢	$336	$327.43	-$8.57
└ Sacramento State leg	Sacramento Stateavg 33.3¢	$175.65	$166.1	-$9.55
BI BillBenter2026	Kent Stateavg 72.3¢	$499.59	$456.06	-$43.53	58% 18618-13687 (32305)
HRTradingARB<$100	Kent Stateavg 70.1¢	$348.3	$361.61	+$13.31	52% 4302-3911 (8213)
└ Kent State leg	Kent Stateavg 70.1¢	$206.22	$216.34	+$10.12
└ Sacramento State leg	Sacramento Stateavg 25.9¢	$142.08	$145.28	+$3.2
FO Forecastication2CTR	Sacramento Stateavg 27.1¢	$207.44	$260.44	+$3.21	50% 6989-6984 (13973)
GA gagarin59	Kent Stateavg 70.4¢	$248.68	$232.98	-$15.7	52% 687-645 (1332)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear	Kent Stateavg 73¢	$186.15	$168.3	-$17.85	47% 313-354 (667)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Kent Stateavg 72¢	$109.26	$148.04	+$15.4	74% 6647-2370 (9017)
└ Sacramento State leg	Sacramento Stateavg 27¢	$58.86	$74.12	+$15.26
└ Kent State leg	Kent Stateavg 72¢	$80.64	$73.92	+$0.14

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Kent State

Invested

$68,491.36

Value

$58.7K

PnL

$-9.8K

Record

54%

1218-1024 (2242)

ethanaz

Kent State

Invested

$50,435.28

Value

$44.4K

PnL

$-6.0K

Record

52%

664-618 (1282)

kkookkoo

Kent State

Invested

$22,999

Value

$21.1K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

51%

600-575 (1175)

3648393489047

Kent State

Invested

$17,239.69

Value

$15.5K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

61%

1123-708 (1831)

NooseracCTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$10,800

Value

$13.6K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

52%

5769-5340 (11109)

0xheavy888CTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$5,400

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

7097-5686 (12783)

RN1CTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$5,354.76

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$607.82

Record

54%

56479-48663 (105142)

MastermoneyCTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$5,298.85

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$70.08

Record

46%

203-239 (442)

torta.tech

Kent State

Invested

$5,937.36

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$847.57

Record

63%

8113-4855 (12968)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$3,335

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$926.39

Record

54%

17133-14341 (31474)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Kent State

Invested

$2,830.2

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$182.59

Record

46%

430-507 (937)

VeryLucky888CTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$2,143.61

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$523.31

Record

58%

41739-30322 (72061)

Mr.ApeCTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$2,307.2

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$413.7

Record

56%

725-567 (1292)

ENDBOSSLLC

Kent State

Invested

$1,399.86

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$66.66

Record

41%

264-375 (639)

averagejoetradersARB<$100

Kent State

Invested

$1,148.94

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$37.3

Record

56%

530-420 (950)

Both legs:

Kent State$86978.5¢-$16.4

Sacramento State$279.9424.9¢-$20.89

oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100

Kent State

Invested

$1,101.13

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$38.7

Record

53%

416-376 (792)

Both legs:

Kent State$842.6979.5¢-$26.68

Sacramento State$258.4424.1¢-$12.02

HerdoniaCTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$825.91

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$214.13

Record

54%

3326-2874 (6200)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$495

Value

$510

PnL

+$15

Record

54%

180-156 (336)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Kent State

Invested

$511.65

Value

$493.53

PnL

-$18.12

Record

54%

10684-9283 (19967)

Both legs:

Kent State$33670.3¢-$8.57

Sacramento State$175.6533.3¢-$9.55

BillBenter2026

Kent State

Invested

$499.59

Value

$456.06

PnL

-$43.53

Record

58%

18618-13687 (32305)

HRTradingARB<$100

Kent State

Invested

$348.3

Value

$361.61

PnL

+$13.31

Record

52%

4302-3911 (8213)

Both legs:

Kent State$206.2270.1¢+$10.12

Sacramento State$142.0825.9¢+$3.2

Forecastication2CTR

Sacramento State

Invested

$207.44

Value

$260.44

PnL

+$3.21

Record

50%

6989-6984 (13973)

gagarin59

Kent State

Invested

$248.68

Value

$232.98

PnL

-$15.7

Record

52%

687-645 (1332)

SunflowaRebuildYear

Kent State

Invested

$186.15

Value

$168.3

PnL

-$17.85

Record

47%

313-354 (667)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Kent State

Invested

$109.26

Value

$148.04

PnL

+$15.4

Record

74%

6647-2370 (9017)

Both legs:

Sacramento State$58.8627¢+$15.26

Kent State$80.6472¢+$0.14

Research grade

NeutralKent State at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kent State

14 of 31 top traders (45%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

35% of non-arb traders are on Kent State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSacramento State 63% · 8

Diverging

sharpKent State 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrSacramento State 67% · 18

Diverging

Hand-pickedSacramento State 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Sacramento State 64% · 25

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kent State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.