Kent State vs. Bowling Green: O/U 55.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 73¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 86%
$1.0K
$139.29
60.2¢ → 72.5¢
+20% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 59¢ | $473.18 | $577.44 | +$104.26 | 58% 3802-2782 (6584) |
65 6512395314597884 | Underavg 62.2¢ | $195.9 | $207.9 | +$12 | 51% 3172-3071 (6243) |
PR primm | Underavg 59¢ | $115.55 | $140.88 | +$25.33 | 61% 855-553 (1408) |
CM cm2897CTR<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $39.1 | $31.05 | -$8.05 | 49% 1097-1127 (2224) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $22.8 | $27.36 | +$4.56 | 49% 443-470 (913) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 72¢ | $24.48 | $24.48 | +$0 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Underavg 68¢ | $20.23 | $21.42 | +$1.19 | 50% 182-180 (362) |
RN1Invested
$473.18
Value
$577.44
PnL
+$104.26
Record
58%
3802-2782 (6584)
Invested
$195.9
Value
$207.9
PnL
+$12
Record
51%
3172-3071 (6243)
Invested
$115.55
Value
$140.88
PnL
+$25.33
Record
61%
855-553 (1408)
Invested
$39.1
Value
$31.05
PnL
-$8.05
Record
49%
1097-1127 (2224)
Invested
$22.8
Value
$27.36
PnL
+$4.56
Record
49%
443-470 (913)
Invested
$24.48
Value
$24.48
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
Invested
$20.23
Value
$21.42
PnL
+$1.19
Record
50%
182-180 (362)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.