Kent State vs. Bowling Green: O/U 47.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 56¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$34.61

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 56.5¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$989.73

Total Shares1,750

Combined PnL+$37.89

Under4 traders

Total Value$519.66

Total Shares1,185

Combined PnL-$72.5

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 51¢	$410.55	$410.55	+$0	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 49¢	$448.84	$380.14	-$68.7	27% 63-170 (233)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 56¢	$313.05	$289.73	-$23.32	48% 947-1017 (1964)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56¢	$197.12	$174.24	-$22.88
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.7¢	$115.93	$115.49	-$0.44
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 53.5¢	$277.35	$282.42	+$5.07	51% 3172-3071 (6243)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 44¢	$174.24	$221.76	+$47.52	30% 134-317 (451)
betdgeCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$88	$87	-$1	45% 19-23 (42)
PR primm<$100	Overavg 61¢	$89.7	$75	-$14.7	61% 855-553 (1408)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 56¢	$43.51	$40.47	-$3.05	49% 443-470 (913)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$11.81	$12.05	+$0.25	54% 1656-1433 (3089)

RN1

Over

Invested

$410.55

Value

$410.55

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

biying88888CTR

Under

Invested

$448.84

Value

$380.14

PnL

-$68.7

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$313.05

Value

$289.73

PnL

-$23.32

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

Both legs:

Under$197.1256¢-$22.88

Over$115.9350.7¢-$0.44

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$277.35

Value

$282.42

PnL

+$5.07

Record

51%

3172-3071 (6243)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$174.24

Value

$221.76

PnL

+$47.52

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

betdgeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$88

Value

$87

PnL

-$1

Record

45%

19-23 (42)

primm<$100

Over

Invested

$89.7

Value

$75

PnL

-$14.7

Record

61%

855-553 (1408)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$43.51

Value

$40.47

PnL

-$3.05

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.81

Value

$12.05

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

1656-1433 (3089)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.