Kent State vs. Bowling Green: O/U 41.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 54¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$2.8K
-$36.64
55.9¢ → 53.5¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 56¢ | $2.4K | $2.3K | -$42.5 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
GC GC-P | Overavg 55¢ | $192.5 | $194.25 | +$1.75 | 16% 66-349 (415) |
NM NM-P | Overavg 55¢ | $148.5 | $149.85 | +$1.35 | 60% 3442-2337 (5779) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $56.75 | $58.07 | +$1.32 | 26% 231-671 (902) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $43.35 | $44.8 | +$1.45 | 25% 227-676 (903) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $21.12 | $21.12 | +$0 | 47% 149-168 (317) |
Invested
$2,380
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$42.5
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$192.5
Value
$194.25
PnL
+$1.75
Record
16%
66-349 (415)
Invested
$148.5
Value
$149.85
PnL
+$1.35
Record
60%
3442-2337 (5779)
Invested
$56.75
Value
$58.07
PnL
+$1.32
Record
26%
231-671 (902)
Invested
$43.35
Value
$44.8
PnL
+$1.45
Record
25%
227-676 (903)
Invested
$21.12
Value
$21.12
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
149-168 (317)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.