Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kent State, while the market favors Bowling Green (72%). 1 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Bowling Green (-6.5)

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Kent State (10%) · Kent State at 28¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 11

Bowling Green72¢Kent State28¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kent State

Consensus Traders

Kent State 10%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.2K

Combined PnL

$3.1K

Research grade

AvoidKent State at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kent State

1 of 10 top traders (10%)Underdog side (market favors Bowling Green 72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bowling Green72%

Kent State28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bowling Green9 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares11,972

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Kent State1 trader

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares11,333

Combined PnL+$497.98

Bowling Green — 90%Kent State — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Kent State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBowling Green 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Bowling Green 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Bowling Greenavg 46¢	$6.1K	$7.2K	+$2.3K	61% 855-553 (1408)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Kent Stateavg 54.1¢	$6.4K	$6.9K	+$497.98	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Bowling Greenavg 50.3¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$80.56	48% 949-1019 (1968)
└ Bowling Green leg	Bowling Greenavg 50.3¢	$579.06	$777.39	+$198.34
└ Kent State leg	Kent Stateavg 55.4¢	$524.32	$307.42	-$278.9
RN1	Bowling Greenavg 51¢	$810.9	$961.95	+$151.05	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
betdge	Bowling Greenavg 38¢	$222.3	$444.6	+$222.3	45% 19-23 (42)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Kent Stateavg 62¢	$246	$200	-$46	51% 3172-3072 (6244)
└ Bowling Green leg	Bowling Greenavg 61¢	$122	$121	-$1
└ Kent State leg	Kent Stateavg 62¢	$124	$79	-$45
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Bowling Greenavg 46¢	$184	$152	-$32	10% 88-785 (873)
IM imjustkenisghey	Bowling Greenavg 45¢	$127.16	$107.38	-$19.78	— 3-6 (9)
PA Pan9X	Bowling Greenavg 56.9¢	$106.07	$87.15	+$0.08	49% 444-470 (914)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Bowling Greenavg 46¢	$86.7	$71.62	-$15.08	48% 190-206 (396)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Bowling Greenavg 40¢	$15.89	$16.09	+$0.2	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
GH ghorrock<$100	Bowling Greenavg 45¢	$4.07	$1.52	-$0.23	54% 383-322 (705)

primm

Bowling Green

Invested

$6,053.77

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

61%

855-553 (1408)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Kent State

Invested

$6,385.56

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$497.98

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$1,266.35

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$80.56

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

Both legs:

Bowling Green$579.0650.3¢+$198.34

Kent State$524.3255.4¢-$278.9

RN1

Bowling Green

Invested

$810.9

Value

$961.95

PnL

+$151.05

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

betdge

Bowling Green

Invested

$222.3

Value

$444.6

PnL

+$222.3

Record

45%

19-23 (42)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Kent State

Invested

$246

Value

$200

PnL

-$46

Record

51%

3172-3072 (6244)

Both legs:

Bowling Green$12261¢-$1

Kent State$12462¢-$45

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Bowling Green

Invested

$184

Value

$152

PnL

-$32

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

imjustkenisghey

Bowling Green

Invested

$127.16

Value

$107.38

PnL

-$19.78

Record

—

3-6 (9)

Pan9X

Bowling Green

Invested

$106.07

Value

$87.15

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

SnakeBall<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$86.7

Value

$71.62

PnL

-$15.08

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$15.89

Value

$16.09

PnL

+$0.2

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

ghorrock<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$4.07

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$0.23

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

Research grade

AvoidKent State at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Kent State

1 of 10 top traders (10%)Underdog side (market favors Bowling Green 72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Kent State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBowling Green 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Bowling Green 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kent State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.0%

28.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$233.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

333.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.