Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bowling Green, while the market favors Kent State (75%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Bowling Green (-3.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Bowling Green (43%) · Bowling Green at 26¢ · $489 held · ended Nov 11

Bowling Green26¢Kent State74¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bowling Green

Consensus Traders

Bowling Green 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$489.41

Combined PnL

-$4.19

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 25.5¢

-53% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidBowling Green at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bowling Green

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Kent State 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bowling Green26%

Kent State75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kent State4 traders

Total Value$241.96

Total Shares474

Combined PnL+$27.58

Bowling Green3 traders

Total Value$204.94

Total Shares424

Combined PnL-$31.77

Kent State — 57%Bowling Green — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Bowling Green. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bowling Green) and the top 1000 (7 on Kent State) disagree here.

ctrKent State 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedBowling Green 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kent State 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Kent Stateavg 46¢	$149.24	$165.46	+$16.22	48% 190-206 (396)
PR primmCTR	Bowling Greenavg 54¢	$173.24	$150.79	-$22.46	61% 855-553 (1408)
38 38791873984189<$100	Kent Stateavg 48¢	$44.16	$46.92	+$2.76	48% 947-1017 (1964)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Kent Stateavg 53¢	$42.48	$42.51	+$0.03	51% 3172-3071 (6243)
└ Bowling Green leg	Bowling Greenavg 47¢	$20.4	$21.26	+$0.87
└ Kent State leg	Kent Stateavg 53¢	$22.08	$21.25	-$0.83
RN1CTR<$100	Bowling Greenavg 49¢	$37.24	$37.24	-$0	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
PA Pan9X<$100	Kent Stateavg 31¢	$11.78	$19.38	+$7.6	49% 443-470 (913)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Bowling Greenavg 69¢	$26.22	$16.91	-$9.31	30% 134-317 (451)
LI Limousin<$100	Kent Stateavg 46¢	$9.2	$10.2	+$1	28% 284-730 (1014)

SnakeBall

Kent State

Invested

$149.24

Value

$165.46

PnL

+$16.22

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

primmCTR

Bowling Green

Invested

$173.24

Value

$150.79

PnL

-$22.46

Record

61%

855-553 (1408)

38791873984189<$100

Kent State

Invested

$44.16

Value

$46.92

PnL

+$2.76

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Kent State

Invested

$42.48

Value

$42.51

PnL

+$0.03

Record

51%

3172-3071 (6243)

Both legs:

Bowling Green$20.447¢+$0.87

Kent State$22.0853¢-$0.83

RN1CTR<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$37.24

Value

$37.24

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

Pan9X<$100

Kent State

Invested

$11.78

Value

$19.38

PnL

+$7.6

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$26.22

Value

$16.91

PnL

-$9.31

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

Limousin<$100

Kent State

Invested

$9.2

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$1

Record

28%

284-730 (1014)

Research grade

AvoidBowling Green at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Bowling Green

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Kent State 75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Bowling Green. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bowling Green) and the top 1000 (7 on Kent State) disagree here.

ctrKent State 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedBowling Green 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kent State 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bowling Green wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.