Spread: Bowling Green (-16.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Kent State (50%) · Kent State at 80¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Bowling Green20¢Kent State80¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kent State

Consensus Traders

Kent State 50%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$1.94

Smart Money Entry

76.9¢ → 80¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralKent State at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kent State

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bowling Green20%

Kent State80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kent State2 traders

Total Value$919.93

Total Shares1,105

Combined PnL+$34.21

Bowling Green2 traders

Total Value$233.98

Total Shares1,170

Combined PnL-$36.15

Kent State — 50%Bowling Green — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Kent Stateavg 76.9¢	$877.47	$911.23	+$33.76	48% 949-1019 (1968)
LI LimousinCTR	Bowling Greenavg 23¢	$244.95	$213	-$31.95	28% 285-731 (1016)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Bowling Greenavg 24¢	$25.18	$20.98	-$4.2	28% 279-730 (1009)
PA Pan9X<$100	Kent Stateavg 77¢	$11.55	$8.7	+$0.45	49% 444-470 (914)

38791873984189

Kent State

Invested

$877.47

Value

$911.23

PnL

+$33.76

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

LimousinCTR

Bowling Green

Invested

$244.95

Value

$213

PnL

-$31.95

Record

28%

285-731 (1016)

VenusianCTR<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

$25.18

Value

$20.98

PnL

-$4.2

Record

28%

279-730 (1009)

Pan9X<$100

Kent State

Invested

$11.55

Value

$8.7

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

Research grade

NeutralKent State at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kent State

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kent State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.