Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kent State, while the market favors Bowling Green (65%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Kent State vs. Bowling Green
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kent State (40%) · Kent State at 36¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Kent State
5
Kent State 40%
$1.8K
$39.49
34¢ → 35.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralKent State at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Bowling Green 65%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Kent State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Kent Stateavg 34¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$35.24 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
38 38791873984189 | Bowling Greenavg 64¢ | $559.34 | $563.71 | +$4.37 | 48% 927-1003 (1930) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Kent Stateavg 35¢ | $17.5 | $17.75 | +$0.25 | 49% 435-456 (891) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Bowling Greenavg 65¢ | $14.77 | $14.54 | -$0.23 | 61% 896-576 (1472) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Bowling Greenavg 65¢ | $9.1 | $8.96 | -$0.14 | 53% 335-299 (634) |
Invested
$1,171.01
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$35.24
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$559.34
Value
$563.71
PnL
+$4.37
Record
48%
927-1003 (1930)
Invested
$17.5
Value
$17.75
PnL
+$0.25
Record
49%
435-456 (891)
Invested
$14.77
Value
$14.54
PnL
-$0.23
Record
61%
896-576 (1472)
Invested
$9.1
Value
$8.96
PnL
-$0.14
Record
53%
335-299 (634)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.