Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Sam Houston, while the market favors Kennesaw State (79%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Kennesaw State (-17.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Sam Houston (50%) · Sam Houston at 22¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Kennesaw State79¢Sam Houston21¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Sam Houston

Consensus Traders

Sam Houston 50%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Entry

62.2¢ → 21.5¢

-65% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidSam Houston at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sam Houston

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Kennesaw State 79%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kennesaw State79%

Sam Houston22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kennesaw State5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares6,568

Combined PnL-$33

Sam Houston5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares6,796

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Kennesaw State — 50%Sam Houston — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Sam Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKennesaw State 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedSam Houston 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sam Houston 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI biying88888	Kennesaw Stateavg 40¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$205.2	44% 203-260 (463)
RN1CTR	Sam Houstonavg 60¢	$3.0K	$1.2K	$-1.8K	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
38 38791873984189CTR	Sam Houstonavg 72¢	$814.45	$562.99	-$248.7	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
MA MadridTime	Kennesaw Stateavg 28¢	$272.33	$388.95	+$116.62	38% 1060-1756 (2816)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Sam Houstonavg 60¢	$367.03	$321.75	-$45.27	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
VE Venusian	Kennesaw Stateavg 27.9¢	$127.46	$182.41	+$54.95	37% 1035-1784 (2819)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sam Houstonavg 72.2¢	$85.54	$33.03	-$52.51	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Sam Houstonavg 72¢	$7.26	$5.85	-$1.41	53% 1854-1648 (3502)
PR primm<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 40¢	$2	$2.5	+$0.5	59% 932-653 (1585)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 45¢	$2.26	$2.38	+$0.13	37% 1116-1869 (2985)

biying88888

Kennesaw State

Invested

$2,052

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$205.2

Record

44%

203-260 (463)

RN1CTR

Sam Houston

Invested

$2,976.7

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

38791873984189CTR

Sam Houston

Invested

$814.45

Value

$562.99

PnL

-$248.7

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

MadridTime

Kennesaw State

Invested

$272.33

Value

$388.95

PnL

+$116.62

Record

38%

1060-1756 (2816)

6512395314597884CTR

Sam Houston

Invested

$367.03

Value

$321.75

PnL

-$45.27

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

Venusian

Kennesaw State

Invested

$127.46

Value

$182.41

PnL

+$54.95

Record

37%

1035-1784 (2819)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Sam Houston

Invested

$85.54

Value

$33.03

PnL

-$52.51

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Sam Houston

Invested

$7.26

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$1.41

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

primm<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

59%

932-653 (1585)

topdogbigboi<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.13

Record

37%

1116-1869 (2985)

Research grade

AvoidSam Houston at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Sam Houston

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Kennesaw State 79%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Sam Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKennesaw State 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedSam Houston 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sam Houston 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sam Houston wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.4%

21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$327.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

427.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.