Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee: O/U 63.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 46¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
1 arb excluded
$3.5K
-$837.73
47.2¢ → 45.5¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 55.4¢ | $2.6K | $2.5K | -$30.78 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 47.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.6K | +$309.19 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 55.4¢ | $1.3K | $965.82 | -$339.96 | |
GA gagarin59CTR | Overavg 44¢ | $999.68 | $477.12 | -$522.56 | 52% 657-608 (1265) |
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE | Underavg 51¢ | $217.91 | $224.32 | +$6.41 | 54% 1175-997 (2172) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 53.8¢ | $491.53 | $192.04 | -$299.5 | 54% 55844-47942 (103786) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Overavg 56.2¢ | $103.85 | $87.84 | -$16.01 | 54% 10476-9103 (19579) |
PR primmCTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $13.59 | $7.51 | -$6.08 | 46% 1040-1239 (2279) |
Invested
$2,550.92
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$30.78
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Both legs:
Invested
$999.68
Value
$477.12
PnL
-$522.56
Record
52%
657-608 (1265)
Invested
$217.91
Value
$224.32
PnL
+$6.41
Record
54%
1175-997 (2172)
RN1CTRInvested
$491.53
Value
$192.04
PnL
-$299.5
Record
54%
55844-47942 (103786)
Invested
$103.85
Value
$87.84
PnL
-$16.01
Record
54%
10476-9103 (19579)
Invested
$13.59
Value
$7.51
PnL
-$6.08
Record
46%
1040-1239 (2279)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.