Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee: O/U 57.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 82¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 28

Over82¢Under18¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$50.91

Research grade

NeutralOver at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over82%

Under18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares5,409

Combined PnL-$190.79

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,206

Combined PnL+$139.88

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Overavg 63¢	$3.4K	$3.2K	-$190.79	46% 1040-1239 (2279)
NooseracCTR	Underavg 38¢	$795.59	$847.94	+$52.34	52% 5722-5285 (11007)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Underavg 28¢	$159.41	$233.42	+$74.01	54% 10476-9103 (19579)
TO torta.techCTR	Underavg 38¢	$204.4	$217.85	+$13.45	63% 7985-4775 (12760)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$2.07	$2.15	+$0.08	57% 13241-10089 (23330)

primm

Over

Invested

$3,409.34

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$190.79

Record

46%

1040-1239 (2279)

NooseracCTR

Under

Invested

$795.59

Value

$847.94

PnL

+$52.34

Record

52%

5722-5285 (11007)

justaluckydudeCTR

Under

Invested

$159.41

Value

$233.42

PnL

+$74.01

Record

54%

10476-9103 (19579)

torta.techCTR

Under

Invested

$204.4

Value

$217.85

PnL

+$13.45

Record

63%

7985-4775 (12760)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.07

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$0.08

Record

57%

13241-10089 (23330)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.