Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee: O/U 49.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 50¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 50%
$4.7K
$78.55
50¢ → 49.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$25.57 | 54% 4810-4044 (8854) |
MA MAGATheeStallion | Overavg 52¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$57.69 | 58% 242-177 (419) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $72.52 | $68.82 | -$3.7 | 54% 16879-14148 (31027) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $28.32 | $27.44 | -$0.88 | 50% 3719-3692 (7411) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $5.1 | $4.95 | -$0.15 | 51% 1295-1231 (2526) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.53 | +$0.02 | 50% 6813-6828 (13641) |
Invested
$2,556.5
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$25.57
Record
54%
4810-4044 (8854)
Invested
$1,999.92
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$57.69
Record
58%
242-177 (419)
Invested
$72.52
Value
$68.82
PnL
-$3.7
Record
54%
16879-14148 (31027)
Invested
$28.32
Value
$27.44
PnL
-$0.88
Record
50%
3719-3692 (7411)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$4.95
PnL
-$0.15
Record
51%
1295-1231 (2526)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.53
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
6813-6828 (13641)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.