Spread: Middle Tennessee (-2.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Kennesaw State (50%) · Kennesaw State at 55¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 28

Middle Tennessee46¢Kennesaw State54¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kennesaw State

Consensus Traders

Kennesaw State 50%

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

-$180.6

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 54.5¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralKennesaw State at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kennesaw State

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Middle Tennessee46%

Kennesaw State55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kennesaw State4 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares7,266

Combined PnL-$86.93

Middle Tennessee4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,491

Combined PnL-$93.67

Kennesaw State — 50%Middle Tennessee — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mooseborzoii	Kennesaw Stateavg 50.9¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$47.88	50% 1138-1132 (2270)
VeryLucky888CTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 49.1¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$98.06	58% 40752-29469 (70221)
TO tomb2456	Kennesaw Stateavg 52¢	$1.0K	$989.98	-$39.6	50% 275-273 (548)
0X 0x2cE8505aA641791EB8460f6ac6bf5C0511E34527-1746735481513CTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 51¢	$335.23	$335.23	+$0	54% 253-217 (470)
SL slimjoeCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 49¢	$210.21	$214.5	+$4.29	51% 6452-6117 (12569)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 48¢	$33.44	$33.15	+$0.01	58% 28121-20725 (48846)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 48¢	$17.28	$17.64	+$0.54	50% 6813-6826 (13639)
MA MarkramCTR<$100	Middle Tennesseeavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.5	+$0.1	70% 2052-888 (2940)

mooseborzoii

Kennesaw State

Invested

$2,655.31

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$47.88

Record

50%

1138-1132 (2270)

VeryLucky888CTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$1,856.57

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$98.06

Record

58%

40752-29469 (70221)

tomb2456

Kennesaw State

Invested

$1,029.58

Value

$989.98

PnL

-$39.6

Record

50%

275-273 (548)

0x2cE8505aA641791EB8460f6ac6bf5C0511E34527-1746735481513CTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$335.23

Value

$335.23

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

253-217 (470)

slimjoeCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$210.21

Value

$214.5

PnL

+$4.29

Record

51%

6452-6117 (12569)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

$33.44

Value

$33.15

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

28121-20725 (48846)

Forecastication2<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

$17.28

Value

$17.64

PnL

+$0.54

Record

50%

6813-6826 (13639)

MarkramCTR<$100

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

70%

2052-888 (2940)

Research grade

NeutralKennesaw State at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kennesaw State

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kennesaw State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.