Spread: Middle Tennessee (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Kennesaw State (50%) · Kennesaw State at 53¢ · $18K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Kennesaw State
6
Kennesaw State 50%
$18.3K
-$677.81
52.1¢ → 52.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralKennesaw State at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR ArielFilipino | Kennesaw Stateavg 52.5¢ | $11.6K | $10.0K | $-1.5K | 61% 96-62 (158) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Middle Tennesseeavg 47¢ | $3.4K | $4.0K | +$543.83 | 54% 16864-14141 (31005) |
MO mooseborzoiiCTR | Middle Tennesseeavg 47¢ | $2.3K | $2.7K | +$369.82 | 50% 1138-1132 (2270) |
UP UpTheBlues | Kennesaw Stateavg 49¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$85.89 | 59% 44606-31003 (75609) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Middle Tennesseeavg 51¢ | $510 | $545 | +$35 | 58% 40752-29469 (70221) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Kennesaw Stateavg 46¢ | $17.02 | $16.84 | -$0.18 | 58% 28121-20725 (48846) |
Invested
$11,550.39
Value
$10.0K
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
61%
96-62 (158)
Invested
$3,408
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$543.83
Record
54%
16864-14141 (31005)
Invested
$2,317.56
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$369.82
Record
50%
1138-1132 (2270)
Invested
$1,202.46
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$85.89
Record
59%
44606-31003 (75609)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$510
Value
$545
PnL
+$35
Record
58%
40752-29469 (70221)
Invested
$17.02
Value
$16.84
PnL
-$0.18
Record
58%
28121-20725 (48846)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.