Kennesaw State vs. Middle Tennessee
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Middle Tennessee (67%) · Middle Tennessee at 55¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 28
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Neutral
Middle Tennessee
3
Middle Tennessee 67%
$6.9K
-$53.59
55.4¢ → 55¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralMiddle Tennessee at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lightotunnel35 | Middle Tennesseeavg 55.2¢ | $5.5K | $5.5K | -$20.27 | 53% 47-41 (88) |
 VeryLucky888 | Middle Tennesseeavg 56.2¢ | $2.8K | $1.3K | -$33.32 | 58% 40728-29460 (70188) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Kennesaw Stateavg 45¢ | $30.6 | $30.6 | +$0 | 58% 28094-20712 (48806) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.