Spread: TCU (-14.5)

11 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Kansas State (55%) · Kansas State at 53¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 14

TCU48¢Kansas State52¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kansas State

Consensus Traders

Kansas State 55%

Total Value

$27.6K

Combined PnL

$230.26

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 52.5¢

-3% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralKansas State at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kansas State

11 of 20 top traders (55%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

TCU48%

Kansas State53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kansas State11 traders

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares26,467

Combined PnL-$165.42

TCU9 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares28,397

Combined PnL+$395.67

Kansas State — 55%TCU — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Kansas State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTCU 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Kansas State 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Kansas Stateavg 54.4¢	$6.8K	$6.6K	-$237.5	54% 503-421 (924)
PU purplegattoCTR	TCUavg 46¢	$5.7K	$5.9K	+$190.3	68% 2645-1233 (3878)
CI cigarettesCTR	TCUavg 45.9¢	$4.8K	$5.0K	+$170.52	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Kansas Stateavg 54¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$95.01	59% 502-345 (847)
VeryLucky888	Kansas Stateavg 52.7¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$11.12	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
GA GaditimaCTR	TCUavg 47.9¢	$957.23	$950	-$7.23	48% 278-299 (577)
65 6512395314597884CTR	TCUavg 45.2¢	$562.12	$590.78	+$28.66	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
HO HomeRunHazard	Kansas Stateavg 57¢	$575.75	$565.64	-$10.1	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
IC ic4creamCTR	TCUavg 47.6¢	$482.71	$482.13	-$0.59	6% 30-460 (490)
38 38791873984189CTR	TCUavg 43¢	$433.27	$443.43	+$10.16	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
GC GC-P	Kansas Stateavg 53.5¢	$374.5	$374.5	-$0	37% 364-613 (977)
SN SnakeBall	Kansas Stateavg 52¢	$309.36	$312.34	+$2.97	48% 912-1002 (1914)
NM NM-P	Kansas Stateavg 53.7¢	$281.75	$280.88	-$0.88	59% 3772-2596 (6368)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	TCUavg 43.9¢	$85.96	$89.04	+$3.09	37% 968-1674 (2642)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Kansas Stateavg 55.2¢	$91.82	$87.26	-$4.57	48% 293-321 (614)
BA Bagwell306<$100	Kansas Stateavg 54¢	$53.46	$54.95	+$1.49	33% 68-137 (205)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	TCUavg 44¢	$21.6	$22.35	+$0.76	45% 261-317 (578)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Kansas Stateavg 57.3¢	$22.92	$22.2	-$0.72	54% 286-244 (530)
GH ghorrock<$100	Kansas Stateavg 57¢	$10.07	$10.07	+$0	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	TCUavg 46¢	$1.28	$1.29	+$0.01	50% 1593-1619 (3212)

0xheavy888

Kansas State

Invested

$6,800

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$237.5

Record

54%

503-421 (924)

purplegattoCTR

TCU

Invested

$5,691.63

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$190.3

Record

68%

2645-1233 (3878)

cigarettesCTR

TCU

Invested

$4,816.98

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$170.52

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Kansas State

Invested

$3,420.36

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$95.01

Record

59%

502-345 (847)

VeryLucky888

Kansas State

Invested

$2,366.97

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$11.12

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

GaditimaCTR

TCU

Invested

$957.23

Value

$950

PnL

-$7.23

Record

48%

278-299 (577)

6512395314597884CTR

TCU

Invested

$562.12

Value

$590.78

PnL

+$28.66

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

HomeRunHazard

Kansas State

Invested

$575.75

Value

$565.64

PnL

-$10.1

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

ic4creamCTR

TCU

Invested

$482.71

Value

$482.13

PnL

-$0.59

Record

30-460 (490)

38791873984189CTR

TCU

Invested

$433.27

Value

$443.43

PnL

+$10.16

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

GC-P

Kansas State

Invested

$374.5

Value

$374.5

PnL

-$0

Record

37%

364-613 (977)

SnakeBall

Kansas State

Invested

$309.36

Value

$312.34

PnL

+$2.97

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

NM-P

Kansas State

Invested

$281.75

Value

$280.88

PnL

-$0.88

Record

59%

3772-2596 (6368)

VenusianCTR<$100

TCU

Invested

$85.96

Value

$89.04

PnL

+$3.09

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Kansas State

Invested

$91.82

Value

$87.26

PnL

-$4.57

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

Bagwell306<$100

Kansas State

Invested

$53.46

Value

$54.95

PnL

+$1.49

Record

33%

68-137 (205)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

TCU

Invested

$21.6

Value

$22.35

PnL

+$0.76

Record

45%

261-317 (578)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Kansas State

Invested

$22.92

Value

$22.2

PnL

-$0.72

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

ghorrock<$100

Kansas State

Invested

$10.07

Value

$10.07

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

Pan9XCTR<$100

TCU

Invested

$1.28

Value

$1.29

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

Research grade

NeutralKansas State at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kansas State

11 of 20 top traders (55%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Kansas State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTCU 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Kansas State 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kansas State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.